Shares in Evergrande fell another 13% on Tuesday after more than $2bn was wiped off the Chinese property developer’s market value when it resumed trading for the first time in almost 18 months on Monday. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm with liabilities of $328bn (£260bn), has lost more than 99% of its share market value over the past three years. The company resumed trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Monday after a 17-month suspension which Evergrande used to try to restructure its offshore debt. However, investors…
Tag: Chinese economy
She Rose From Poverty as China Prospered. Then It Made Her Poor Again.
Two years ago, as she walked through a hospital hallway in handcuffs and shackles to get tested for Covid, Sun Junli felt ashamed and defeated. At 45, she had come a long way. The poor village girl in northwestern China had become a successful businesswoman. Then she was crushed. In 2018, state-owned banks abruptly stopped lending to her business, a chain of cafe restaurants, and the pandemic destroyed her cash flow. By May 2021, Ms. Sun had lost her restaurants, and she was serving 16 days in detention for owing…
How can the US and China prevent a war? | Nouriel Roubini
The US and China remain on a collision course. The new cold war between them may eventually turn hot over the issue of Taiwan. The “Thucydides trap” – in which a rising power seems destined to clash with an incumbent hegemon – looms ominously. But a serious escalation of Sino-American tensions, let alone a war, can still be avoided, sparing the world the cataclysmic consequences that would inevitably follow. There will always be at least some tensions when a rising power challenges the prevailing global power. But China is facing…
How China Made Its Housing Crisis Worse
In China the pension akin to Social Security in the United States pays about $410 a month to seniors who live in cities, and only $25 a month in the countryside. Public health care covers less than half of people’s costs. Unemployment insurance provides around $220 a month; the U.S. average is nearly $1,700. China’s consumer safety net is full of holes, even when accounting for lower costs of living compared to the United States. As growth has faltered in recent years, and now as a simmering real estate crisis…
China’s economic model is faltering – does it have the political will to fix it? | George Magnus
The long days of summer are proving to be rather too long for the government in Beijing. In an attempt to stabilise the faltering real estate market, the authorities announced earlier this week a modest decline in interest rates that was underwhelming in scale and intent. Those who recall the bad old days in which the west was buffeted by successive crises such as those involving Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers will recognise the futility of lower interest rates in stemming systemic problems in real estate and finance…
China’s Property Crisis: Why It’s So Hard for Beijing to Fix
China’s stock market was plunging and its currency was teetering. The head of the central bank, fielding questions at a rare news conference, said that China would make it easier to get home mortgages. It was February 2016 and Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s longtime governor at the time, announced what proved to be the start of an extraordinary blitz of lending by China’s immense banking system. Minimum down payments for buying apartments were reduced, triggering a surge in construction. Vast sums were also lent to local governments, allowing them…
The Guardian view on the Chinese economy: it looks bad. What we can’t see may be worse | Editorial
A spate of recent statistics shows that the Chinese economy is faring poorly. The country was supposed to rebound after ditching its draconian “zero Covid” policies, but, after an initial revival, things have gone awry. Earlier this month it slipped into deflation. Key indicators, including industrial production, investment and retail sales, came in well below expectations. The most concerning figure, however, is the one that we can’t see. The youth unemployment rate was suspended from the monthly economic data release, having reached a record 21.3% in June – suggesting not…
Chinese economic slowdown is a result of debt supercycle | Kenneth Rogoff
The 2008 financial crisis in the US kicked off a debt supercycle, which spread to Europe in 2010 and has recently engulfed many of the world’s low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Could the debt woes of Country Garden, the behemoth Chinese real estate developer now facing billions of dollars in losses, augur the cycle’s next turn? The answer remains unclear. While the Chinese authorities have a remarkable track record when it comes to containing economic crises, the challenges posed by a significant growth slowdown, combined with high debt levels – especially…
Chinese Confidence Hits Low Point Because of Nation’s Economic Troubles
When their government abruptly ended its harsh Covid measures in December, many Chinese expected a robust rebound from pent-up demand. Eight months later, China is instead facing an accumulation of bad news: record youth unemployment, a deep housing slump, stagnant spending, even deflation. That’s a shock to many Chinese who are used to an economy that kept on expanding and living standards that rose with it. Now they’re contending with slowing businesses and shrinking personal fortunes. I talked to over a dozen business owners and consumers, as I have been…
China cuts key interest rate amid economic slowdown
China’s central bank has cut one of its key lending rates but left another unchanged, surprising economists who had expected more forceful action to support economic growth amid widespread concerns over its path. The world’s second-largest economy is in the midst of a slowdown, and has slipped into deflation with prices falling year on year as slowing domestic spending weighs on the country’s post-Covid economic recovery. The Chinese property industry is also in crisis, as the slowdown exposes overextended developers. Evergrande Group, once China’s leading property developer, filed for bankruptcy…