Category: The Diplomat

Moody’s, one of the world’s Big 3 credit ratings agencies, this week confirmed China’s sovereign credit rating of A1, Upper-Medium Investment Grade, and revised its outlook from “Negative” to “Stable.”  For nearly two-and-a-half years, since December 2023, China has had to manage a fiscal environment in which its global outlook was designated by Moody’s as “Negative.” Among other impacts, such designation has called into question China’s credibility as a safe destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and was perceived by the Chinese as an affront to its self-image as a…

On April 24, China’s Commerce Ministry banned exports of dual-use items to seven European entities, placing them on its export control list. The stated reason: “arms sales to or collusion with Taiwan.” Those sanctioned include Germany’s Hensoldt AG, Belgian arms manufacturers FN Herstal and FN Browning, and four Czech companies: Excalibur Army, Omnipol, VZLU Aerospace, and SpaceKnow. By restricting European defense companies cooperating with Taiwan, Beijing is doing more than enforcing its One China Principle. It is severing Europe’s access to a valuable combination: Ukraine’s battlefield drone know-how and Taiwan’s…

On October 14, 2016, during the historic visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Bangladesh, Dhaka and Beijing formally upgraded their relationship to a Strategic Partnership of Cooperation, and Bangladesh became a participant in the Chinese-financed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since then, several Chinese-sponsored major infrastructure projects have been completed in Bangladesh, and several more are underway.  On July 11, 2024, Dhaka and Beijing further elevated their partnership to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership. Even the subsequent political upheavals in Bangladesh – including the July Uprising that…

For much of the modern era, Central Asia – including Afghanistan and China’s western Xinjiang province – has been treated as a geopolitical periphery. Long viewed as an isolated buffer zone shaped by conflict, “otherness,” and great power competition, this perception is now shifting. Geopolitical realignments, economic and security necessity, as well as regional initiatives are repositioning Central Asia as an emerging hub of trade and cooperation. That background helps explain China’s establishment of Cenling County in March 2026 along its border with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor. While some analyses emphasized…

For spring break, we took the kids to Disneyland. The line for the Guardians of the Galaxy ride stretched to 95 minutes. Standing in front of me was a young Asian man, scrolling on his phone. I glanced over and saw him using WeChat, the Chinese social media app. So I decided to strike up a conversation in Chinese: “Are you excited to ride Guardians? It’s one of the most thrilling roller coasters in the U.S.” He looked up, smiled, and said, “Oh, I’m so excited! Hallelujah!” Hallelujah? My religion-scholar…

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s recent visit to Beijing unfolded against an extraordinary geopolitical background. Navigating a precarious terrain of trade spats and shifting alliances, Sanchez aimed to anchor a more resilient bilateral cooperation framework with China, a partner essential to his country’s economic future. Spain might have sat at the negotiation table as David before Goliath, yet the results of the meeting suggest that it punched above its weight. The Spanish delegation secured 19 bilateral agreements, covering a wish list of investment, education, agrifood, and technology. The commitments range from expanding Spanish pistachio…

One of the central issues during Honduras’ most recent presidential election was the country’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China. Opposition candidates at the time – Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura – suggested that ties with Beijing could be reassessed, leaving open the possibility of restoring relations with Taiwan, which Tegucigalpa severed only in 2023.  Following Asfura’s victory, this prospect appeared to gain traction, particularly given U.S. President Donald Trump’s support during the final stretch of his campaign and the Honduran president’s participation in the Shield of the Americas…

In December 2025, the United States announced an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan. Yet months later, Taiwan’s legislature remains mired in debate over a supplemental defense budget. In Washington, the delay has often been read as evidence that Taiwan is not sufficiently serious about its own defense. But such an interpretation oversimplifies the politics of procurement in Taiwan and, more importantly, misidentifies the source of the problem. The central constraint is not a lack of awareness of the China threat, nor a decline in willingness to defend Taiwan. It…

On April 2, the third and final Preparatory Commission (PrepCom3) for the Entry into Force of the Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) came to a close after two weeks intensive negotiations in New York. The meeting aimed to smooth the way for the first meeting of Conference of the Parties (COP1), set to take place in January 2027.  Among the things discussed in PrepCom 3, the choice of host city for the new BBNJ Secretariat was a focal…

As Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban goes into political exile and China loses this close European friend, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was in Beijing for the fourth time, seeking investment deals and pushing for the European Union (EU) to consider China a “strategic partner.” Forget Hungary – it is Spain that is increasingly looking like China’s best friend in the EU. Orban’s massive electoral loss to Peter Magyar last weekend was followed by analysis suggesting that this is a blow for China, representing the loss of its “best friend…