Category: The Diplomat

On October 4, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished the first round of Brazil’s presidential election behind his main rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and an open ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Flavio Bolsonaro had taken 47 percent of valid votes against Lula’s 45 percent. Because no one topped 50 percent of votes, however, the race went to a second-round runoff. The first post-election poll gave Bolsonaro a six-point lead in the head-to-head contest. Three weeks later, Lula won with 51.76 percent,…

China wants its artificial intelligence (AI) to go global. But Beijing also wants tailored control over what leaves, who acquires it, and what remains in the hands of the Chinese government. That’s the tension behind proposed revisions to technology export measures, announced on October 16. Spurring international adoption while retaining authority over strategic technology creates room for China to exert leverage over those who use or build on Chinese AI abroad. Announcement No. 48 from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) proposed adding 23 AI technologies to its Catalogue of Technologies…

As Togo’s President of the Council of Ministers Faure Gnassingbé concluded his eight-day visit to China on October 16, much of the geopolitical attention surrounding the deepening relationship between Lomé and Beijing naturally centered on China’s expanding commercial and strategic influence in West Africa. Yet an equally important question deserves attention: What does Togo stand to gain from its growing partnership with China? For Togo – a relatively small coastal country with significant maritime assets and ambitions to become a regional economic hub – China offers opportunities that extend beyond…

Pope Leo XIV succeeded Pope Francis in May 2025, becoming the 267th Pontiff of the global Catholic Church. According to academic and media analyses, Pope Leo XIV’s diplomatic strategy continues Pope Francis’ approach of “engagement” and “openness,” placing a particular emphasis on “peace” and the “de-escalation of potential armed conflicts.”  For Taiwan, the most closely watched diplomatic development during Pope Francis’ tenure was the 2018 provisional agreement on appointing bishops, signed between the Holy See and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This agreement led the Chinese government to formally…

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have put Xi Jinping in an unusual position by expressing interest in a trilateral summit with the Chinese leader at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen mid-November. Xi’s cautious response so far – Moscow and Washington have confirmed discussion, while Beijing has yet to commit publicly – could help Europe and Ukraine avoid the worst: major powers making decisions about the region in their absence. The idea for a meeting came from Russia and it’s not hard to see…

Since the Chinese Civil War concluded in 1949, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) have battled endlessly for diplomatic recognition. Due to Beijing’s “One China” principle, states are forced to either pick one side or pick neither.  The ROC, now colloquially better known as Taiwan, initially enjoyed an advantage in international recognition due to U.S. anti-communist messaging and generous economic assistance programs. After U.N. Resolution 2758 admitted the PRC to the United Nations and expelled the ROC, the battle for international recognition has tilted…

Nearly five years have passed since the adoption of the Declaration on China-Africa Cooperation on Combating Climate Change at the Eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC 8) in 2021. Since then, discussions have often centered on simple indicators to reflect on the progress made – for example, the number of projects announced, the size of new investments, and the scale of renewable energy commitments. At first glance, Development Reimagined’s China-Africa Climate Action Tracker provides just this. The tracker captures 246 publicly announced climate actions across 50 African countries between 2022…

Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Abdoulkader Houssein Omar is visiting China from October 19 to 25. On October 21, he held a meeting with his counterpart and host, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. According to a spokesperson from China’s Foreign Ministry, “They had an in-depth exchange of views on the Horn of Africa situation and the safety of shipping lanes across the Red Sea.” The Red Sea is under siege – a major concern for Djibouti, which sits on the Horn of Africa, at the junction between the Red Sea and the…

China’s growing pressure on LGBTQ communities is increasingly transnational. Chinese nationals who attend Pride events overseas can attract police attention after returning home; overseas Chinese LGBTQ groups remain vulnerable to censorship on Chinese platforms; cultural spaces in Europe can lose access to Chinese social media for promoting transgender films; and mainland writers publishing gay fiction on overseas platforms have faced prosecution at home. Hong Kong offers a particularly revealing entry point because similar pressures are visible there even though same-sex relationships are legal (though not legally recognized as marriages). In…

On October 4, Taliban officials inaugurated the 121-kilometer-long Wakhan Transit Road connecting Afghanistan to China via the Wakhan Corridor after approximately three years of construction work. The road stretches from Afghanistan’s Broghil border area, on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, along Badakhshan province’s Wakhan district, finally reaching the border with China. According to Afghanistan’s de facto government under the Taliban, beyond China, the road will connect the country with third parties like Central Asian countries and global markets.  This corridor is expected to play a significant role for Afghanistan’s trade as well…