Humanity is inching along a precarious tightrope.
Our world is in the midst of deciding how the artificial intelligence revolution will unfold and what limits should be drawn. Too much caution could waste A.I.’s promise of faster economic growth, greater scientific discovery and more prosperity. Too little caution could unleash labor-market chaos and social disorder. Balance matters. If we get the balance between control and growth wrong at any point, we’ll fall into the gorge below. And no country is guaranteed to get to the opposite side.
This is our century’s biggest survival challenge.
The Chinese tech executives we met on a trip last month were optimists about the technology, but they were much more conservative than Silicon Valley on how fast the growth of A.I. ought to be. Some were wary about replacing their employees too aggressively with A.I. Others worried that if A.I. became destabilizing, China’s entire industry might be reined in by the government. One chief executive even said point-blank that growing more slowly was preferable to going full speed ahead, so as to avoid a repeat of the Luddite backlash toward the Industrial Revolution, when 19th-century English workers tried to halt the spread of mechanization by storming factories and destroying power looms.
Chinese policymakers are also visibly wrestling with how to encourage growth while preserving social and regime stability, which is the top priority for the Chinese Communist Party. In April, China stopped issuing new licenses for autonomous vehicles after dozens of robotaxis abruptly stranded passengers on the streets of Wuhan. That same month, a Chinese court ruled that companies cannot terminate employees just to replace them with A.I. systems. In June, a new employment five-year plan pledged to prevent large-scale unemployment risks and to use A.I. to promote job creation. A ban on A.I. companions for minors in China is set to take effect in July.
Although China is no paragon, such actions have helped buoy the population’s feelings toward A.I. Around 84 percent of respondents in China said they were excited about A.I., according to a recent Stanford report. Meanwhile, American skepticism toward the technology remains high. Communities across the United States are fighting the construction of data centers. Parents worry about children forming unhealthy attachments to A.I. companions. Workers fear being replaced. Policymakers warn of national security vulnerabilities. Researchers debate catastrophic risks. These fears are not irrational. People are asking a simple question: Will A.I. make my life better, or make it worse?
The question is hard to answer because the benefits of the technology are unevenly distributed and can often feel overhyped. One reason is what some have called “jagged intelligence,” where A.I. fails at incredibly simple tasks even as it excels in specific areas. So when some in Silicon Valley predict an impending jobpocalypse, while others view the industry’s claims as overblown, it’s hardly surprising that the public mood around A.I. is darkening. In a Gallup survey from last year, 80 percent of American adults thought the government should regulate A.I., even if doing so means slower progress, a view that was shared by Democrats and Republicans alike. Even young Americans who historically embraced new technologies are angrier and more skeptical.
Dismissing A.I. entirely would be a mistake. The technology can help diagnose diseases, predict protein folding, improve farming, forecast disasters better, design new materials, accelerate scientific and drug discovery and power robots in dangerous environments to improve human safety (such as in space, firefighting and minefields).
