This November, Taiwanese voters go to the polls to elect mayors, city councilors, and village chiefs. Many foreign policy observers will read the results as a verdict on Taiwanese attitudes toward China, President Lai Ching-te, Trump, or a potential war. That would be an analytical mistake. The outcomes cannot be explained by how voters feel about independence, unification, China, the United States, or any other national issue. As the saying goes, local elections are about local issues. Decades of data show that Taiwanese voters prioritize China, sovereignty, and Taiwan’s future…
Day: October 1, 2026
China’s Stake in the Russian Duma Elections
What did observers in China think about the Russian State Duma election on September 20? While retaining a veneer of democratic procedure, Vladimir Putin has steadily eliminated potential rivals and term limits, much like Xi Jinping has done. In past Russian election cycles, Chinese officials and experts by large have emphasized the importance of outcomes reinforcing political stability in Russia. In terms of the latest election, most Western commentary criticized the unfair process preventing Putin’s primary opposing party, Yabloko, from running. Yabloko – which means apple in Russian but actually…
Taiwan Can’t Fight Beijing’s History War While Erasing Its Own ROC Legacy
At last week’s summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, the White House described the United States and China as World War II allies who “fought side by side to win the war.” It was a small phrase with a large omission. The government that represented China during the war, and fought alongside the United States against Japan, was the Republic of China (ROC). The government Xi leads – the People’s Republic of China (PRC) – did not exist until 1949, four years after Japan’s surrender.…
Oil Is Flowing From the Persian Gulf, but Prices Remain High. Why?
More oil is flowing from the Middle East than at any point since the start of the war with Iran, yet crude still costs almost $100 a barrel, much more than at other times when supplies were more constrained. That seeming conundrum can partly be explained by a change in traders’ views about how long the conflict is going to last. Optimism that an enduring peace deal might be around the corner has given way to concern that hostilities could restart. In the meantime, the United States and other countries…