The strategic dilemma for China as neighbours move closer to the US

George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre, said it was understandable that Beijing was deeply concerned about “an increasingly militarised Asia, and one in which it had few friends that really mattered”.

Noting the recent unusually harsh remarks by President Xi Jinping about US-led “containment, encirclement and suppression”, Magnus said it had become increasingly untenable for China’s neighbours to “stay aloof or profess neutrality”.

“But it is a delicate balancing act for China, to publicly castigate the US without offending those countries in Asia which might be drawn to the US umbrella but which China would still like to keep on side,” he said.

“The last thing you want if you think you are being contained is to encourage other nations in your neighbourhood to do exactly what you don’t want.”

China’s foreign ministry slammed the Aukus deal, first unveiled in 2021, as evidence of a “cold war mentality” that risks an arms race in the region.

But Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said it was about more than the nuclear submarines because it involved joint research and development on hypersonic weapons, cybersecurity collaboration and an expanded British and US presence in the region.

China warns Aukus against going down ‘dangerous road’ over nuclear-powered submarine pact

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China warns Aukus against going down ‘dangerous road’ over nuclear-powered submarine pact

“So all in all, Aukus is a significant military cooperation framework, and it’s also in part motivated by what was seen to be Quad’s limitations in the area of defence and security cooperation,” he said.

Along with Japan and India, the US and Australia are both members of the Quad, which Beijing has denounced as a potential Asian Nato.

Koh said Beijing was rightly concerned about Aukus, which would “amount to a very significant collective military strength that can counter China’s military build-up”.

Australia’s acquisition of a nuclear submarine capability could also help magnify Washington’s much-touted undersea advantage in the naval competition with China, making it a lot harder for Beijing to catch up.

But Zhou Chenming, a researcher at the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology institute, played down those concerns, saying Australia’s US$245 billion nuclear-powered submarine programme may have limited impact on China directly.

“They have no way of deploying submarines near China,” said Zhou, pointing to concerns among Western military analysts about the feasibility of the deal.

“Nuclear submarines are very expensive to use and maintain, and Australia’s military spending would henceforth be kidnapped by the US.”

But Zhou admitted China was not capable of halting the deals.

“It’s a pity that we’ve just seen signs of improvements in China’s relations with Australia and now we have to deal with disruptions the Aukus deal would probably cause.

“With Aukus being so forthright in building an anti-China military alliance, I think they would need to explain one day who is the one that makes dangerous provocations,” he said.

Meanwhile, China is also watching warily as South Korea and the Philippines, which both witnessed a change in government last year, are edging closer to Washington despite Beijing’s repeated warnings.

Chinese military ship accused of shining laser light at Philippine coastguard vessel

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Chinese military ship accused of shining laser light at Philippine coastguard vessel

After the Yoon-Kishida summit last week, China’s foreign ministry voiced opposition to the formation of “closed and exclusive blocs” and said they hoped the two countries’ efforts would not undermine regional peace and prosperity.

Observers said it was a thinly veiled warning not to join hands to help the US contain China.

While Kishida’s Japan has become increasingly critical of China on Taiwan and other sensitive issues and introduced an ambitious rearmament plan, the Yoon administration has been more cautious so far.

But with the unveiling of South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy in January, the thaw in relations with Japan, and Yoon’s planned visit to the White House next month, many Chinese analysts are concerned that it may have eventually taken the side of the US.

Japan conducts parachute training with British and Australian armies for first time

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Japan conducts parachute training with British and Australian armies for first time

Pang Zhongying, a professor of international affairs at Sichuan University, said Seoul’s change of heart, if confirmed, would be a significant boost for the US strategy.

Speculation has also been rife that South Korea may join the US-led Quad, as Washington hopes, and Yoon has said the country may cooperate with its working groups on vaccine development and climate change.

“The future of South Korea-Japan ties remains to be seen as they are largely constrained by domestic politics on both sides.

“Seoul’s participation in the Quad, even partly, would mark a big shift for the country, which has had a difficult balancing act due to its dependence on China’s economy,” Pang said.

Despite President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s visit to Beijing in January, ties between Beijing and Manila have been strained in recent weeks after Manila decided to lean toward the US to counter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, where the two sides have an ongoing territorial dispute.

Zhang Mingliang, a Southeast Asian affairs expert with Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Manila’s relationship with Washington was “at its deepest and most solid stage ever”.

He added: “[Marcos’s] pursuit of closer ties with the US comes at a tricky time for China’s diplomacy. Beijing, in the midst of its deepening feud with Washington and a generally challenging external environment, relies on its neighbours for support and cannot afford to lose Manila by punishing it for its close military ties with the US,” he said.

Koh said there was not much Beijing could do to win over its neighbours, especially after promises on aid and investment had not been delivered.

“Manila’s wariness towards Beijing also shows that the economic leverage card has lost its shine unless China can dramatically scale up its game.

“All in all, therefore, not only China cannot afford to antagonise and lose the Philippines by resorting to punitive measures over the latter’s closer military ties with the US, it also seems to have been running out of options to draw Manila closer to its orbit.

“If it pushes Manila further in the South China Sea, it risks further pushing the latter into the embrace of Washington,” he said.

Japan and South Korea hail thaw in ties as leaders resume mutual visits amid missile threats

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Japan and South Korea hail thaw in ties as leaders resume mutual visits amid missile threats

Pang of Sichuan University added that China should not overestimate its economic appeal.

“Both [the US and China] are trying to gauge and test each other. But with Washington making progress in building a strategic alliance and economic partnerships, the US is unlikely to slow its efforts to roll out its China-focused foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific – even if Beijing and Washington manage to resume dialogue to manage their differences and conflicts,” he said.

South China Morning Post

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