Tag: Inflation (Economics)

Federal Reserve Walks a Tightrope Between Inflation and Recession

Chin@Strategy

In an interview, James D. Hamilton, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, and a leading expert on the economic effects of oil shocks, said they had “made major contributions to recessions over many decades.” At current oil price and supply levels, the effects of the Russian war “are fairly manageable for the American economy.” But Professor Hamilton pointed out that Russia’s oil, which amounts to about 10 percent of world production, could not be easily replaced if totally cut off — an outcome that he does…

I.M.F. Forecasts U.S. and China Slowdowns Will Hold Back Growth

Chin@Strategy

The pandemic has changed the way people in many parts of the world spend their money, shifting funds that might have been used for dining, travel and entertainment to goods they can play with, sit on or consume at home. That increased demand, combined with persistent difficulties in moving goods from one city or continent to another, skyrocketing energy prices and labor shortages, has driven up costs. Some of those pressures are expected to wane toward the end of the year — but not everywhere. “In the United States the…

How Republicans Can Replay the Reagan Era

Chin@Strategy

For a long time, longer than I’ve held this job, my advice to Republican politicians and policymakers has been consistent: It isn’t the 1970s or 1980s anymore. The ideas associated with Ronald Reagan’s ascent to power, forged in an era of Cold War and high crime rates, stagflation and sexual revolution, were responses to crises and challenges decades in the past, and the G.O.P. was doomed to cycles of failure until it devised an agenda more fitted to the times. The year 2021, though, is the first time a reasonable…

What an Adult Tricycle Says About the World’s Supply-Chain Problems

Chin@Strategy

Catrike has 500 of its three-wheeled bikes sitting in its workshop in Orlando, Fla., nearly ready to be sent to expectant dealers. The recumbent trikes have been waiting for months for rear derailleurs, a small but crucial part that is built in Taiwan. “We’re sitting on $2 million in inventory for one $30 part,” said Mark Egeland, the company’s general manager. The company’s problems offer a window into how supply-chain disruptions are rocking companies in the United States and around the world, pushing inflation higher, delaying deliveries and exacerbating economic…