When is a cease-fire no longer a cease-fire? Yesterday, American forces struck Iran for the second time in three days. In response to U.S. strikes on Monday, Iran swiftly threatened counterattacks — and yet, so far, both sides say that negotiations are ongoing and the cease-fire is holding.
There’s a cease-fire in Lebanon, too, in theory, but Israel has just significantly intensified its campaign against Hezbollah there. There’s a cease-fire in Gaza — but hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since it began in October.
It’s remarkable how much firing a cease-fire can take without crossing the threshold from “fragile” into “broken.” Today I write about why.
Why a cease-fire can look a lot like war
This week, the United States and Iran exchanged serious fire — and not for the first time since they agreed to a cease-fire seven weeks ago.
The first time, in early May, was during a short-lived effort by the U.S. Navy to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Who acted first is in dispute. The U.S. said that Iran had launched missiles and drones on three U.S. warships transiting the strait, and toward its Gulf neighbors, while Iran said that U.S. forces had struck Iranian ships and targets along the Iranian coast.
