President Trump, who considers himself a master deal maker, has never made any secret of his belief that the secret to winning at negotiation is to keep the other side off balance.
But a year into his second term, his act is starting to wear on both allies and adversaries, some of whom are starting to view him as so mercurial and unreliable that they appear willing to consider waiting him out or turning away from him rather than enduring the abrupt starts, stops and humiliations that can accompany engaging with him.
In foreign policy, tariffs, immigration and his pressure campaign on universities, Mr. Trump’s threats, retreats, twists and turns have left negotiating partners feeling at times that they are being used to score political points and that there is little purpose to engaging on substance when his moods and demands can shift in an instant.
“What Trump is identifying as unpredictability is actually anxiety about his electoral prospects,” said Timothy L. O’Brien, a biographer of Mr. Trump.
“He’s aware that he’s going into a possibly daunting midterm election and he’s throwing these Hail Mary passes in order to try to cultivate voters, to demonstrate that he’s in charge, to seek retribution from perceived enemies, but I don’t think it has anything to do with unpredictability in the service of great deal making,” he said.
After seeming to break a logjam in long-stalled negotiations with Harvard University, Mr. Trump abruptly reversed course, withdrawing his agreement not to seek a $200 million fine from the school and instead demanding that it pay $1 billion. The White House called it part of the normal back-and-forth of negotiations, but it strengthened the hand of those at Harvard who say the school should not agree to the president’s demands.
