IF CHINA’S OLD people formed their own country, it would be the fourth most populous in the world, right behind America. This silver-haired state would be growing fast, too. China’s over-60 population sits at 297m, or 21% of the total. By 2050 those figures are expected to reach 520m and 38%. Yet demographers describe China’s future as greyer—and smaller. For while its oldest cohorts are growing, younger ones are not (see chart). China’s total population declined for the second year in a row in 2023. The country’s labour force has been shrinking for most of the past decade.

The Economist