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The elements of the periodic table that revolutionised chemistry as a scientific field more than 150 years ago are now at the heart of a momentous modern commercial and geopolitical battle.
The contest is playing out from corporate boardrooms planning mining megadeals to US efforts to form a “critical minerals” trade zone to counter China’s influence.
Dozens of the world’s nearly 100 naturally occurring elements are in growing demand for crucial industrial uses, making their supply expensive, prone to shortages or vulnerable to international tensions.
Much attention has been on rare earths, which are used in green technologies and defence and are the focus of a new US stockpiling effort known as Project Vault. China has most of the world’s supplies and has imposed curbs on exports.
But rare earths account for just a quarter of the 60 critical minerals listed by the US Geological Survey as having crucial uses. The US launched a drive this month to collaborate on critical minerals supplies, including with Japan and European countries, to curb China’s dominance.
“The big three industries that will need critical minerals are batteries and energy storage, defence applications and semiconductors,” said Jessica Fung, head of consulting with market intelligence firm Project Blue. “And anything that falls across all of them will be in especially high demand.”
The race to secure supplies of industrial metals is driving global mining corporate tie-ups, such as the combination of Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources. Other strategic moves include the Pentagon stake in a Louisiana-based producer of gallium, which has military and communications applications.
What follows is a roster of prized materials that the world craves at a time of war, great power mercantilism and energy transition.
Here are three classes of elements that show how science, sourcing and scarcity combine to shape global affairs:
Industrial essentials
The first set of elements are staple substances used in producing goods ranging from fighter jets to power plants. They figure prominently on most official critical minerals lists, from the US and the EU to Japan, China and South Korea.
Mastering supply chains of these elements, from mines to the factory floor, has become a matter of geostrategic importance in an age of trade and political confrontation. Supremacy in technologies such as microchips, electric vehicles and nuclear power are at the heart of the rivalry.
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China’s trump cards
Some coveted minerals are not in global shortage, but mines or processing facilities are concentrated in a few countries — or one, most often China.
For example, the country dominates the rare earth elements used in green energy technologies, such as wind turbines. China has restricted rare earth supplies in response to disputes with Washington and its allies.
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Tomorrow’s prized elements
There are some commonly found metals which could have steeper demand in the future.
One of those is copper, said Henry Sanderson, a fellow with the Royal United Services Institute and author of the book Volt Rush. “All of the big miners want more.”
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Dmitri Mendeleev, the 19th-century Russian chemist who built the prototype for the modern periodic table, famously said the idea came to him in a dream. Now these same rows and columns of letters are the stuff of nightmares for policymakers charged with ensuring the uninterrupted supply of vital materials.
Additional reporting by Chesca Kirkland, Lucy Rodgers, Emma Cipolla, Caroline Nevitt and Ændra Rininsland
