Other than 2018 – when an extra session for a constitutional amendment disrupted following sessions – third plenums in recent decades have generally been held in October or early November, according to a tally by the South China Morning Post.
Observers said the delay might be a result of accommodating the summit next week between the US and Chinese presidents. Other factors at play could be the need to find ways to reignite growth in the sluggish economy as the international environment becomes more hostile.
A Beijing-based political scientist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the delay may mean there were still many issues, both domestic and international, that need to be properly addressed.
“[President] Xi [Jinping] also appears to often show a very high degree of flexibility … to convene meetings in accordance with need, and not to rush before all aspects of the preparation are done, and avoid delaying some other important matters,” the analyst said.
He added that “there needs to be a lot of consensus reached on details at the practical level, technically and operationally, for the convening of the plenum such as its agenda”.
This year also marked the 45th anniversary of the country’s reform and opening up policy, so the third plenum would involve summarising past experience and coming up with new strategies for the future, he said.
The meeting might even be delayed until early next year before the annual legislative sessions in March, he said.
In 1978, then leader Deng Xiaoping used the third plenum to set China on the road to reform and a nationwide economic transformation. And in 2013, the third plenum ushered in dozens of market-oriented reform measures.
Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, said the timing this year might be a result of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit with US President Joe Biden next week.
“Due to Xi’s busy schedule before the end of November, especially preparation for his trip to San Francisco and meeting with Biden, which seems to be the priority in China’s foreign affairs currently, it makes sense that the third plenum will be held later in the year,” Zhu said.
The delay also comes amid a series of unexpected personnel changes in the cabinet sworn in earlier this year.
Beijing has yet to explain the dismissal of former foreign minister Qin Gang in July and former defence minister Li Shangfu in October. They remain members of the Central Committee.
Under the party’s constitution, any decision to discipline a Central Committee member, such as expulsion from the party, would be finalised at the annual plenum.
Of the seven plenary sessions in a five-year cycle, the third tends to attract more attention because it often unveils policies that could change the direction of the country’s economy, with a policy blueprint for the next decade.
Song Seng Wun, economic adviser at CGS-CIMB Securities in Singapore, said the next plenum should generate announcements on measures to “cushion” the economy further.
“There are still worries about the property sector taking some wind out of confidence, Song said. At CGS-CIMB, “we would sort of look at this as a base case for policymaking”.
Nick Marro, lead analyst in global trade with The Economist Intelligence Unit, said “any surprise policy announcements, at least from the perspective of a more liberal approach to the economy” were unlikely because “those voices have largely been sidelined”.
“Investors might welcome any signals of greater policy certainty, but will need to be realistic about the prospect of any big, market-changing reforms,” he said.
Marro added that if the plenum did not take place this year, it “would reinforce the idea that the current leadership does not see a strong need to review existing policy lines”.
“That might ultimately be disappointing to investors, given the focus of past third plenums on economic reform.”
According to the party’s constitution, plenary meetings of the Central Committee are convened by the Politburo and should be held at least once annually.
The date for the meeting has usually been announced at a Politburo meeting. For the third plenums held over the past two decades, the schedule was announced days before it convened. For example, the third plenum convened on November 9, 2013 was announced at a Politburo meeting held on October 29 that year.
Past practice suggests preparations for the coming plenum might already be under way. Preparations for the 2013 meeting took more than six months, according to state news agency Xinhua, and included the establishment of a special working group – headed by Xi – in April that year. Xi also chaired several meetings of the Politburo, its Standing Committee and the working group to “study and give instruction” on the drafting of the decision document deliberated at the third plenum, Xinhua said.
Similarly, for the third plenum held in October 2003, a working group was formed in April that year and was headed by then premier Wen Jiabao. And for the third plenum held in October 2008, a working group was also formed about six months in advance.
Additional reporting by Ralph Jennings
