Month: August 2022

China’s Options for Punishing Taiwan Economically are Limited

Chin@Strategy

In retaliation for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week, China conducted large-scale military exercises around the self-governing island democracy and suspended some trade between the sides. The exercises led to a few shipping disruptions, but they did not affect traffic at Taiwanese or Chinese ports, analysts say. And the trade bans were notable mainly for what they did not target: Taiwan’s increasingly powerful semiconductor industry, a crucial supplier to Chinese manufacturers. The bans that Beijing did impose — on exports of its natural sand to Taiwan, and on…

The Realist Underpinnings of China’s Taiwan Strategy

Chin@Strategy

Advertisement China’s aggressive response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei has prompted criticism, and no small measure of alarm, both within and beyond the region. It included dispatching People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) jets across the median line separating Taiwan from China, and China’s military engaging in a concurrent series of drills in six separating locations on each side of the island – the closest less than 12 nautical miles from Taiwan’s shore. The high-risk exercises involved firing munitions around and over the island, some of…

Hong Kongers in Exile Fight for Their Truth – and Ukrainians 

Chin@Strategy

Advertisement In the bustling Prague 7 district, an art exhibition takes place featuring work on the life and pro-democracy struggle of local activists and youth in Hong Kong. A white sculpture in the main hall, with goggles, umbrella, and a gas mask, catches the eye first. The attire, blended in white clay with the rest of the statue, is symbolic and was once donned by thousands of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong when the city was seeing waves of intense protests in 2019 and early 2020 – mainly in opposition…

Billboards celebrating Hong Kong’s ‘new era’ to stay up in Australia despite complaints

Chin@Strategy

Billboards with a message from the man who led Beijing’s security crackdown in Hong Kong will remain on Australian streets despite complaints. The advertisements in Sydney and Melbourne celebrate “a new era” in Hong Kong, where the Chinese Communist party has imposed new security laws and quashed dissent. They feature a website with a message from Hong Kong chief executive John Lee, who oversaw that security blitz. <gu-island name="TweetBlockComponent" deferuntil="visible" props="{"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":" Prime Minister @AlboMP, this billboard glorifying China’s “New Era” of repression in Hong Kong is in your electorate. Can…

Weather tracker: deadly floods in South Korea and drought in China

Chin@Strategy

Extreme flooding in South Korea this week submerged streets, cars and buildings, as torrential downpours brought more than a month’s worth of rainfall in the space of a few days. Between Monday and Wednesday a cumulative total of 525mm – a little over 20 inches – was recorded in Seoul. At least nine people are confirmed to have died from the floods and many more are reported injured or missing. High rainfall rates and flooding during the monsoon season in South Korea is common, with average rainfall of up to…

Your Friday Briefing: U.S. to Unseal Trump Warrant

Chin@Strategy

Good morning. We’re covering moves by the U.S. to unseal the Mar-a-Lago search warrant, Russia’s preparation for possible show trials and Taiwan’s undeterred diplomacy. U.S. to unseal the Trump warrant Merrick Garland, the U.S. attorney general, moved to unseal the warrant authorizing the F.B.I. search for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s residence in Florida. Garland said he personally approved the decision to seek the warrant. Garland’s statement followed revelations that Trump received a subpoena for documents this spring, months before the F.B.I. search on Monday. It also came a…

US and allies should move to protect ‘freedom of navigation’, says Taiwan envoy

Chin@Strategy

The US and its allies should jointly respond to China’s live ammunition drills designed to intimidate Taiwan by holding “freedom of navigation” operations in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei’s official representative to the UK has said. In an interview with the Guardian, Kelly Wu-Chiao Hsieh also called on the UK to uphold the principles of rules-based international order and forge closer trade and security investment relations with Taiwan. He welcomed the decision of the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, to condemn the unprecedented Chinese military exercises in the wake of the visit…

How the crisis over Taiwan will change US-China relations

Chin@Strategy

In january 1950, three months after the Communist victory in China’s civil war, President Harry Truman issued a statement. America, he declared, would not intervene militarily to help China’s defeated Nationalists, who had fled to the island of Taiwan. Mao Zedong was already preparing an invasion and probably would have succeeded had the Korean war not erupted in June that year. The conflict prompted Truman to change tack, backing South Korea and ordering the Seventh Fleet to defend Taiwan in a bid to halt the spread of communism in Asia.…

Xi, Henan, and China’s Growing Financial Crisis

Chin@Strategy

Advertisement In July, videos of tanks supposedly rolling onto the streets of Henan circulated online, with many posts drawing comparisons to the Tiananmen Square Massacre. While the video was later refuted – the Associated Press confirmed the tanks were taking part in a military exercise in another city more than 400 kilometers away – the recent incident put the current Chinese banking crisis under the spotlight. Protesters had indeed gathered in Henan after being unable to access their savings and faced violent retaliation from police. As the 20th National Congress…

China Vows More Drills, but Taiwan Is Undeterred

Chin@Strategy

If China’s show of force over Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip was meant as a deterrent, it has not had the intended effect in Taiwan, where the military drills have reinforced a careful two-pronged strategy of shoring up international support, while avoiding overt confrontation. The exercises, which encircled the self-ruled island and simulated a blockade, appear instead to have hardened the Taiwanese belief in the value of the island’s diplomatic, economic and military maneuverings to stake out a middle ground in the big-power standoff between China and the United States. Under…