When trade ministers gathered in the Moroccan city of Marrakech 30 years ago this month to sign the agreement creating the World Trade Organization (WTO), the mood was celebratory. The Berlin Wall had come down only recently, communism had collapsed, and there was optimistic talk of how the body would prise open new markets and act as the arbiter when disputes broke out between countries. The atmosphere today is much darker than it was in April 1994. Any enthusiasm for groundbreaking trade liberalisation deals disappeared decades ago and has been…
Tag: Global economy
World’s largest solar manufacturer to cut one-third of workforce
The world’s largest solar manufacturer has slashed nearly a third of its workforce after a cost-cutting drive that included telling staff to only print in black and white fell short and as a chill ripples through the renewable energy sector. China’s Longi is to cut as much as 30% of its workforce, in an acceleration of cost reductions that began late last year, Bloomberg reported. It is unclear exactly how many jobs will be lost at the company, which employed 80,000 at its peak last year, as an internal function…
The Guardian view on supply chains: not only just in time, but just in case | Editorial
In 2012, shortly before becoming China’s top leader, Xi Jinping visited the Port of Los Angeles to discuss boosting trade. What then looked like a locus of cooperation has now become another site for suspicion as Sino-American relations remain tense. Last month, the Biden administration announced $20bn of funding for port infrastructure, much of it to replace cargo cranes that have almost all been made by a state-owned Chinese firm. The US is concerned because the sophisticated pieces of equipment manage information about containers and their contents, their origins and…
China needs to do more on ‘silent crisis’ of debt, says World Bank official
China holds the key to speeding up debt relief and ending the “silent crisis” that is holding back attempts to tackle poverty in the world’s poorest countries, a senior World Bank official has said. Ayhan Kose, the Bank’s deputy chief economist, said Beijing needed to be more active in negotiations to provide financial support for those countries already in, or close to, debt distress. Kose said China’s emergence as a significant creditor country over the past 15 years meant it needed to take responsibility for making a post-pandemic debt relief…
China has seen a fourth month of falling prices, but will it act to curb deflation?
China’s economy has gone from bad to worse – and it is only February. Figures released on Thursday showed consumer prices fell by 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier, outstripping economists’ expectations and marking the biggest contraction in 15 years. Prices in China have been flat or falling nearly continuously since July. Although the country’s zero-Covid policy was abandoned more than a year ago, consumers are still cautious about spending, both on everyday goods and on property, which has traditionally been the driver of growth in China’s gross…
China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years as deflation fears deepen
China’s consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in 15 years in January, as the world’s second-largest economy sank deeper into deflation amid weakening demand. Data released on Thursday showed that China’s consumer price index tumbled last month, falling by 0.8% compared with a year earlier. It marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, as well as the sharpest drop since September 2009, when the global economy was still grappling with aftershocks from the 2008 banking crisis. Food prices were the biggest drag on the headline inflation figure, having fallen…
Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy – turbulence is ahead | Kenneth Rogoff
A month into 2024, the consensus forecast for the global economy remains cautiously optimistic, with most central banks and analysts projecting either a soft landing or potentially no landing at all. Even my colleague Nouriel Roubini, famous for his bearish tilt, regards the worst-case scenarios as the least likely to materialise. The CEOs and policymakers I spoke to during last month’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos echoed this sentiment. The fact that the global economy did not slip into recession in 2023, despite the sharp rise in interest rates,…
Chinese markets rally on report Beijing considering £222bn state rescue plan
Chinese markets have lifted following a report suggesting that Beijing policymakers are scrambling to mobilise billions of yuan from state-owned enterprises to reverse a recent share rout. The benchmark CSI 300 index, which replicates the top 300 stocks traded on the Shanghai and the Shenzhen bourses, had fallen to a five-year low, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, had dropped to its lowest in nearly two decades. However, Chinese indexes recovered slightly on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the authorities were…
The global economy is poised for another tumultuous year in 2024 | Kenneth Rogoff
The global economy was full of surprises in 2023. Despite the sharp rise in interest rates, the US successfully avoided a recession, and major emerging markets did not spiral into a debt crisis. Even Japan’s geriatric economy exhibited stunning vitality. By contrast, the EU fell behind, as its German growth engine sputtered after China’s four-decade era of hypergrowth abruptly ended. Looking ahead to 2024, several questions loom large. What will happen to long-term inflation-adjusted interest rates? Can China avoid a more dramatic slowdown, given the turmoil in its real estate…
China’s many systemic problems dominate its outlook for 2024 | George Magnus
There were contrasting reactions when the US rating agency Moody’s downgraded China’s A1 credit rating outlook from stable to negative last month. Financial markets, focused on the economy, paid it barely any attention. Chinese state media, looking at the politics, saw red. Global Times called it “biased and unprofessional”. A few days later, the Ministry of State Security issued a statement stipulating that the only purpose of “negative talk” was to doubt or deny China’s socialist system, and to contain its development. The Chinese Communist party’s prickly attitude to criticism…