China’s economy has gone from bad to worse – and it is only February. Figures released on Thursday showed consumer prices fell by 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier, outstripping economists’ expectations and marking the biggest contraction in 15 years. Prices in China have been flat or falling nearly continuously since July. Although the country’s zero-Covid policy was abandoned more than a year ago, consumers are still cautious about spending, both on everyday goods and on property, which has traditionally been the driver of growth in China’s gross…
Tag: Economics
China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years as deflation fears deepen
China’s consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in 15 years in January, as the world’s second-largest economy sank deeper into deflation amid weakening demand. Data released on Thursday showed that China’s consumer price index tumbled last month, falling by 0.8% compared with a year earlier. It marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, as well as the sharpest drop since September 2009, when the global economy was still grappling with aftershocks from the 2008 banking crisis. Food prices were the biggest drag on the headline inflation figure, having fallen…
China’s consumer prices fall at fastest rate in 15 years as economy battles deflation – business live
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Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy – turbulence is ahead | Kenneth Rogoff
A month into 2024, the consensus forecast for the global economy remains cautiously optimistic, with most central banks and analysts projecting either a soft landing or potentially no landing at all. Even my colleague Nouriel Roubini, famous for his bearish tilt, regards the worst-case scenarios as the least likely to materialise. The CEOs and policymakers I spoke to during last month’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos echoed this sentiment. The fact that the global economy did not slip into recession in 2023, despite the sharp rise in interest rates,…
Chinese markets rally on report Beijing considering £222bn state rescue plan
Chinese markets have lifted following a report suggesting that Beijing policymakers are scrambling to mobilise billions of yuan from state-owned enterprises to reverse a recent share rout. The benchmark CSI 300 index, which replicates the top 300 stocks traded on the Shanghai and the Shenzhen bourses, had fallen to a five-year low, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, had dropped to its lowest in nearly two decades. However, Chinese indexes recovered slightly on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the authorities were…
The global economy is poised for another tumultuous year in 2024 | Kenneth Rogoff
The global economy was full of surprises in 2023. Despite the sharp rise in interest rates, the US successfully avoided a recession, and major emerging markets did not spiral into a debt crisis. Even Japan’s geriatric economy exhibited stunning vitality. By contrast, the EU fell behind, as its German growth engine sputtered after China’s four-decade era of hypergrowth abruptly ended. Looking ahead to 2024, several questions loom large. What will happen to long-term inflation-adjusted interest rates? Can China avoid a more dramatic slowdown, given the turmoil in its real estate…
China’s many systemic problems dominate its outlook for 2024 | George Magnus
There were contrasting reactions when the US rating agency Moody’s downgraded China’s A1 credit rating outlook from stable to negative last month. Financial markets, focused on the economy, paid it barely any attention. Chinese state media, looking at the politics, saw red. Global Times called it “biased and unprofessional”. A few days later, the Ministry of State Security issued a statement stipulating that the only purpose of “negative talk” was to doubt or deny China’s socialist system, and to contain its development. The Chinese Communist party’s prickly attitude to criticism…
World economy on brink of ‘cold war two’, IMF official warns
The world economy is on the brink of a second cold war that could “annihilate” progress made since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a senior International Monetary Fund official has warned. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said the accelerating fragmentation of the world economy into regional power blocs – centred around the US and China – risked wiping out trillions of dollars in global output. “If we descend into cold war two, knowing the costs, we may not see mutually assured economic destruction. But we could…
China falls deeper into deflation territory, hitting markets, as UK house asking prices drop – business live
From 52m ago Introduction: China’s consumer price drop adds to deflation fears Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. While most of the advanced world is struggling with inflation, China has the opposite problem. The world’s second-largest economy has dropped further into deflation territory, with consumer prices falling last month, new data released last weekend shows. China’s consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.5% on a monthly basis in November, showing that prices of a basket of goods and services fell…
EU expected to issue veiled warning to China over supply of cut-cost goods
The EU is to tell China that its €400bn (£343bn) trade deficit is not sustainable long term amid fears that it will flood the bloc with subsidised electric cars, solar panels and medical devices, threatening European manufacturing and jobs. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief, and Charles Michel, the European Council president, will meet Xi Jinping at a summit on Thursday, the second of its kind this year. They are expected to issue the Chinese president with a veiled warning that unless China does something about the supply…