As 2025 draws to a close amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing over new arms sales to Taiwan, analysts warn that the worsening atmosphere could weigh on the substance – if not the scheduling – of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China next year to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Washington’s announcement last week of a US$11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest to date, has sharpened frictions at a sensitive moment, making it less likely that Beijing will be inclined to offer concessions or deliverables that Trump is seeking from the high-stakes sit-down.
While China’s official response has so far been confined to “stern representations” and targeted sanctions on US defence firms, analysts say the scale and symbolism of the package complicate the political space ahead of any high-level engagement. Rather than scrapping the summit outright, Beijing may choose to limit its ambitions, signalling displeasure through a more restrained agenda or harder bargaining positions.
Advertisement
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the US arms sales could negatively affect a potential Trump visit to China or limit the outcomes he seeks, but the situation “is still evolving”.
“It also depends on how Washington will respond to Beijing’s demands,” Wu said.
‘We have a deal’: Trump claims breakthrough after ‘12 out of 10’ talks with Xi Jinping
‘We have a deal’: Trump claims breakthrough after ‘12 out of 10’ talks with Xi Jinping
“I think in the period ahead, the importance of the Taiwan issue in bilateral relations will certainly rise and become more prominent. This means that coming bilateral diplomacy will increasingly revolve around the Taiwan issue,” he said.
