Six years on, are we better prepared for the next pandemic?

The world in general had no inkling of the terrible three years that would follow, with death estimates ranging from 7 million to 36 million, over 700 million infections reported, an economic cost put at US$12.5 trillion and more than 100 million people globally pushed into extreme poverty. I was among those who grossly underestimated what the toll would be. Writing in April 2020, I had naively assumed it would all be over in a few months, like with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003.

Yet over two years after Covid-19 was brought under control, many worldwide are behaving as if the pandemic never happened and that such a health emergency is unlikely to happen again any time soon.

Rather than focusing on the lessons that we need to learn, many have been preoccupied with blame-shifting arguments on how and why we allowed the virus to spread out of control – glossing over what is perhaps the single most important reality: faced with a pandemic threat, delays of even a day or two (well within the range of human fallibility) can have catastrophic consequences.

The outbreak’s early chronology is as fascinating as it is sobering. While a smattering of cases emerged in November 2019, it was only on December 30 that Wuhan officials formally reported the unusual pneumonia. While many in the Western world were still on extended Christmas and New Year breaks, Covid-19 was likely extending its range beyond China’s borders, exploiting international “vector hubs” such as Hong Kong.

The genome was decoded by January 2, but it was a further 10 days before the Chinese authorities released the genome internationally. It was January 30 when the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency.