China bets big on copper, but ‘weaponisation’ risks low, unlike with rare earths: analysts

China is accelerating efforts to secure its copper supply chain, designating the metal as critical across strategic industries such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and defence amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Provincial governments are leading the charge. On Monday, Jiangxi – already a hub for heavy rare earth mines – pledged in its 15th five-year plan to develop a world-leading hub for advanced copper-based new materials.

That follows a similar move in Shandong, where provincial authorities vowed on December 9 to build a 200 billion yuan (US$28.4 billion) copper industry by 2027, aiming to become a “globally competitive copper-smelting base”.

The push underscores copper’s evolution into a “strategic metal”, driven by electrification demands and global supply shortages, said Allan von Mehren, chief China economist at Danske Bank.

However, analysts say copper is unlikely to become a geopolitical lever for Beijing akin to rare earths, given China’s reliance on imported raw materials.

“China’s push to develop its copper industry is primarily driven by economic security and supply-chain-resilience considerations, rather than by a narrow export-led strategy,” said Alberto Vettoretti, managing partner at consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates.

South China Morning Post