China’s 2025 growth forecast raised to 5% by IMF, citing resilience

China’s economy is projected to grow by 5 per cent in 2025 before slowing to 4.5 per cent in 2026, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, offering a slightly more upbeat outlook that underscores its view of resilience despite trade frictions.

The annual assessment released on Wednesday showed an upwards revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the IMF’s October forecast, as the world’s second-largest economy rolled out stimulus measures and faced lower-than-expected tariffs on its exports, the IMF said at a media briefing in Beijing.

The economy has shown stability but faces tests caused by continued imbalances, said Sonali Jain-Chandra, the IMF’s mission chief for China.

“China’s economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years.”

“China’s large economic size and heightened global trade tensions make reliance on exports less viable for sustaining robust growth,” she said, urging Beijing to transition to a consumption-led growth model, away from an over-reliance on exports and investment.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s trade surplus hit a record high of over US$1 trillion, according to official data released on Monday.

South China Morning Post