Modelling of Taiwan war shows US could recruit Australia, Japan for sanctions

Australia and Japan could serve as “core” members of potential US-led pre-emptive sanctions to deter Beijing from launching a military attack on Taiwan if Washington considers the threat imminent, according to an influential American think tank.

Researchers from the Rand Corporation said that if the United States expected war to break out across the Taiwan Strait “within an ensuing three to six months”, it was possible Washington would put in place economic restraints “pre-emptively in a large-scale fashion” against mainland China.

“For maximum effectiveness [of those measures], allies and partners will need to be on board,” the analysts argued in a report titled “Economic Deterrence in a China Contingency”. It depicted Canberra and Tokyo as “the most important of those in the Pacific area”.

“We suggest that it is likely that the core group of countries that would counter China would be the United States; Australia and Japan, given their Pacific security interests and their close relationship with the United States,” said the study published on Thursday.

Trump downplays Taiwan dispute in China talks

It identified the United Kingdom as another potential party to the expected coalition, citing London’s “historic relationship” with Washington and its long-standing role as a “global security leader”.

South China Morning Post