Can the EU walk a strategic autonomy tightrope in the China-US tug of war?

This year marks half a century of formal diplomatic relations between China and the European Union as well as the 25th anniversary of the founding of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Here, Shi Jiangtao looks at how the relationship has been affected by Trump 2.0 and accompanying ups and downs of US-China ties, and global conflicts.

In an era defined by intensifying US-China rivalry, the European Union often finds itself pulled in opposite directions by the competing giants, caught in trade wars, technological decoupling and the fallout from Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine.

Walking a strategic tightrope, Brussels continues to champion the notion of “strategic autonomy”, aspiring to reduce external dependencies, strengthen independent capabilities and position itself as a potential third pole in a multipolar world – a stabilising force, a normative power and a global actor.

Strategic autonomy has been a recurring ambition since the end of the Cold War, but its formal inclusion in the EU’s 2016 Global Strategy sparked a pivotal shift.

The concept has gained renewed urgency amid mounting geopolitical pressures, especially in the wake of Brexit and Washington’s unilateralism in US President Donald Trump’s first term. It has since evolved into a defining mantra in Brussels, frequently echoed in speeches, policy documents and summit communiques.

Yet, observers warn, nearly a decade later the EU, despite its economic weight and diplomatic reach, still struggles to translate its ambition into a coherent strategy for independent decision-making in defence, technology and foreign policy within a rapidly shifting global order.