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Japan’s Liberal Democratic party is poised to make political history next month by delivering either the country’s first female prime minister, or the youngest man to hold the job since the 19th century.
But either result will force the long-ruling party to confront what a growing number of members see as a make-or-break chance to reinvigorate the ailing bloc. The LDP, which has ruled Japan for all but a handful of the past 70 years, is divided between its conservative and liberal wings, and has been shedding public support.
The two frontrunners in a field of five candidates for the LDP leadership contest, which officially began on Monday, are Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi, according to political analysts, domestic media polling and multiple LDP members.
Takaichi is a hardline conservative in her 60s who has cited the late UK leader Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. She has held a wide portfolio of senior government roles over her 32-year career, and oversaw the “Cool Japan” policy of the 2010s that tapped the nation’s cultural power to boost its international influence.
Her rival is the more liberal Koizumi, the 44-year-old agriculture minister and son of Japan’s reformist former PM Junichiro Koizumi. In 2023, he surfed the coast near the tsunami-wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to alleviate concerns about radiation contamination.
Analysts said the contest framed the dilemma gripping the LDP, between luring back conservatives who defected to harder-line parties, or revamping under Koizumi, who is six years younger than Japan’s median age of 50.1 years.
“The party knows that in order to win back its majorities in parliament, it will have to hold a general election sooner or later, and it will need to win,” said one sitting LDP MP. “More than other leadership contests, this is about the survival of the party.”
Under outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who lasted 11 months, the LDP lost control of both houses of parliament, forcing it into awkward co-operation with smaller parties. Ishiba’s abrupt resignation announcement this month triggered the leadership race, which will be decided on October 4 by a combined vote of LDP MPs and supporters.
Unlike in the past, the LDP’s ability to anoint a prime minister is also less assured. Whoever secures the leadership will require opposition party votes or abstentions to be elected premier.
“This year’s leadership election has been fundamentally reshaped by the reality of minority government,” said Tobias Harris, founder of the Japan Foresight research group.
Political analysts described the race as a humiliating “beauty pageant” for the once-dominant LDP, as whoever wins will immediately be forced to court smaller parties to pass budgets and legislation through parliament.
Other candidates include chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and former foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi, but both trailed far behind Takaichi and Koizumi in the LDP’s 2024 leadership race.
A number of populist parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito and Japan Innovation party, have drawn young voters and working families in recent years by seizing the agenda on immigration and other sensitive debates.
Japan’s resident foreign-born population has risen more than 85 per cent since the start of the “Abenomics” era in 2012, with many working in industries that have suffered severe labour shortages such as construction and hospitality. But that increase — and its speed — has sparked concerns among many voters that too sharp a shift threatens the culture and identity of Japanese society.
Both frontrunners shunned emotive issues in their campaign launches over the weekend, focusing instead on economic pledges.
Takaichi, devotee of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, declared that “Japan is back” and vowed to make the country “once again a vigorous land of the rising sun”.
Previously seen as a fiscal dove, she called for “responsible, aggressive and wise spending” and ruled out a cut to consumption tax, but promised cash handouts for the public and income tax deductions to offset rising prices.
Analysts said that messaging showed evidence of a more pragmatic approach, after Takaichi lost to Ishiba in last year’s leadership race.
She has previously opposed changing a law that obliges married women to take their husband’s surname for legal purposes, among other conservative policies that critics have said would offset her appointment as a landmark achievement for gender equality in the country.
“Takaichi is becoming more moderate and has stopped articulating her hawkishness,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political scientist at Tokyo University. “Meanwhile Koizumi seems to be hiding his reformist position and views on deregulation. Both candidates are getting closer to the moderate position.”
Koizumi focused on wage increases to “restore security and stability” as Japan shifts from a deflationary era to one of sustained price growth.
His proposals included an overhaul of the income tax system to adjust the size of tax-free allowances in response to inflation, large public investments and raising average wages from less ¥5mn ($33,700) annually for salaried workers by another ¥1mn by 2030.
In a nod to a top issue for populist parties, he also promised tighter controls over land purchases by foreigners.
“I will reunite the LDP, and move politics forward,” Koizumi said.
