Why China should tread carefully around French interests in Africa and the Pacific

Indeed, should the coup leadership manage to stabilise its grip on power, China could be tempted to recognise the new rulers to protect its oil and uranium interests in Niger. After all, Beijing has accepted the military power grabs in Burkina Faso and Mali in recent years.

If China successfully fills the French void in Niger, it would score another point in the Global South amid increasing strategic competition with the United States. But any possible Chinese overtures to Niger’s coup leaders would also irritate France.

A video image obtained on July 28 of General Abdourahamane Tiani speaking on national television after the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger. Photo: AFP

Along with neighbouring Chad, Niger is Paris’ last military bastion in the Sahel area after it withdrew troops from Mali and Burkina Faso, which saw military coups in May 2021 and January 2022 respectively. The French were forced to pull forces from Malian territory last year even as Mali’s military leaders were accused of deploying Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries. Earlier this year, Paris also officially ended military operations on Burkinabe soil.

Losing its position in Niger will be a clear setback for Paris. French troops have been deployed in the landlocked country to combat an Islamist insurgency in the Sahel region. Niger is also the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium and an important contributor to French nuclear power plants.

China’s geopolitical imperative in Africa is to ensure a stable environment for its investments and trade operations, and this implies that Beijing is in no mood to risk irking France.

In line with its position on the civil conflict in Sudan, China’s foreign ministry called on all factions in Niger to “solve differences peacefully through dialogue, restore order at an early date, and safeguard the overall peace, stability and development of the nation”.

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If Beijing is prudent about the Niger crisis, it may be less accommodating with France when it comes to geopolitical jockeying in the South Pacific, given the direct implications for China’s defence.

“There is in the Indo-Pacific, and particularly in Oceania, new imperialism appearing, and a power logic that is threatening the sovereignty of several states; the smallest, often the most fragile,” Macron said in a speech in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu on July 27.

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France sees itself as a Pacific actor because of its New Caledonia, French Polynesia and the Wallis and Futuna dependencies, which have about 560,000 French citizens altogether. By virtue of these territories, it has an exclusive economic zone in the South Pacific of about 6.5 million sq km to defend. With 2,840 troops stationed in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, it is the only European power with a permanent military presence in the area.

While Macron’s tirade in Vanuatu was also directed at the United States, which is jostling with China for influence in the South Pacific, his first target was clearly Beijing. During his visit to New Caledonia on July 26, he announced that the number of French troops will be increased there and cautioned that independence for the French overseas territory could mean a “ Chinese naval base” tomorrow.

Macron was apparently referring to the security agreement that China signed with the Solomon Islands last year. The terms of the pact are largely secret but would give Chinese warships the right to make stopovers and refuel in the ports of the Pacific island nation, which shares a common sea border with French Caledonia.

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Chinese tabloid Global Times attacked Macron’s narrative about the risk of new imperialism in the South Pacific, with some experts labelling it “an empty concept” and desperate effort to save France’s marginalised status in the region.

France wants to preserve its sphere of influence in its former African colonies and defend its sovereignty in the South Pacific. Chinese President Xi Jinping will have to take this into account if he wants the entente with Macron to bear fruit.

Recent developments in Europe, such as Italy’s decision to try and back out of participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the European Commission’s push for an economic security strategy evidently aimed at China, should advise Beijing to play its cards right in areas where it could end up threatening French national interests.

Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst

South China Morning Post