US risks falling behind China in rapid satellite launches, report warns

“The United States has the most advanced space industry in the world, but it has not demonstrated a commensurate ability to launch rockets on short notice.”

Bresnick and colleague Corey Crowell from the US Space Force used publicly available data to evaluate key aspects of China’s progress in space resilience in the last 10 years.

However, the US remained ahead of China in most measures except for one – the quick launch capability, which would be needed in “a less likely but critical scenario” where satellites were under attack, Bresnick said.

Since 2002, China has designed and launched more than half a dozen models of solid-fuel rockets which are compatible with transporter erector launchers (TELs). This means that the rockets can be carried on a mobile platform such as a specialised truck to any flat, open area, and then raised vertically for launch.

Among these models, ExPace’s Kuaizhou-1A and the Long March 11 developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology are the workhorses with around 30 successful launches combined since 2013.

Meanwhile, launch vehicle developers in the US had prioritised larger, more efficient liquid-fuel rockets that depended on extensive launch infrastructure, Bresnick said.

Currently, the US only has two solid-fuel rockets – Pegasus XL and Minotaur, both of which are produced by Northrop Grumman and based on designs from three decades ago. Neither is TEL-compatible: the Pegasus is launched from an aircraft and the Minotaur needs to be launched from a pad.

As of 2023, the US government has provided relatively limited funding for the development of quick launch vehicles: US$15 million in 2021, US$50 million last year and the same again this year, the report said.

“To close the gap with China, the US government might consider developing strategies for managing stored inventories of satellites and rockets, increasing investments in solid-fuel launch vehicles, and partnering with commercial launch providers to develop and maintain liquid-fuel launch vehicles for TRSL,” the report recommended.