“The PLA has flown drones into Taiwan airspace before, but this is the first time drones were deployed to circle the entire island,” Lu said.
“Such an operation is not only a ‘lucrative strategy’ to harass Taiwanese forces, but also a low-cost tactic to create real threats to Taiwan’s 24-nautical mile sea and air limit.”
Lu said the PLA drones flew much slower than fighter jets, making it very difficult for the island’s air force to scramble warplanes to monitor or expel them. It also made it much more challenging to shoot them down with expensive missiles, Lu said.
“Drones could intimidate the public with psychological warfare, since the on-board cameras can take high-resolution pictures and video for propaganda,” he said.
Last month, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told a meeting of the island’s Foreign and National Defence Committee that increasing aircraft and vessel operations by the PLA around Taiwan could be aimed at testing the island’s 24-nautical mile limit.
The PLA began deploying combat drones around Taiwan in 2020 as part of its “island encirclement patrols”. In addition to reconnaissance drones, the PLA has sent tactical and damage assessment drones on regular patrols around the island.
Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, said the increasing deployment of drones around Taiwan showed they would play a key role in possible future attack scenarios.
“The Russian war in Ukraine indicates that drones are handy, low-cost, powerful modern warfare weapons,” he said.
“Unlike the [older] Dongfeng series missiles that needed sophisticated silos and vehicle launchers, drones can be deployed anytime and anywhere.”
04:17
China’s military simulates precision strikes on Taiwan after island’s leader returns from US visit
Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said this was not the first time the PLA had deployed drones on regular island encirclement patrols, but it was the first time they had been seen by the Taiwanese military.
“Sending drones to patrol near Taiwan could become a routine operation,” he said.
Lu said he expected that the mainland would deploy more advanced unmanned aerial vehicles in the future.
“It is predictable that almost all the drones displayed at the National Day parade on October 1, 2019 would eventually show up around Taiwan, including China’s most powerful WZ-8 supersonic spy drone,” he said.
In September last year, the Taiwanese military shot down an unidentified civilian drone from the mainland – the first time the island’s forces had brought down a drone over territory controlled by Taipei.
Meanwhile, the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command said it had sent fighter jets to follow and monitor a US P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft for nearly one hour as it flew over the Taiwan Strait on Friday.
In a statement, the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet said the P-8A had transited the Taiwan Strait “in international airspace” on Friday.
