How lessons from Iran war could shape mainland China’s calculus on Taiwan

Whether it wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran will echo for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics, energy security and global perceptions of American tactical and strategic power. In the first of a three-part series, Mark Magnier looks at how the Iran war may alter Beijing’s approach to potential conflict over Taiwan, asymmetrical weaponry and the United States as an adversary.

The US military is formidable, well-disciplined, projects deadly force rapidly and is tactically impressive. However, its drone warfare has struggled – even as concerns over inflation and casualties reduce support for a protracted war potentially benefiting an authoritarian system not subject to electoral pressure.

These are among the lessons the People’s Liberation Army is likely to draw as it studies the Pentagon’s tactics and strategy in the Iran war, with an eye to any eventual Washington-Beijing conflict over Taiwan, according to analysts and former Pentagon and CIA officials.

“The Chinese military is going to go to school on this,” said Dennis Wilder, a former US Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Council official. “For the Chinese, the question is, will this work and is this workable for us.”

“And we’re not at the conclusion of that story,” added Wilder, a senior fellow at Georgetown University.

Parts of the conflict are not directly translatable. US President Donald Trump apparently did not consult US allies other than Israel, whereas any Taiwan conflict is likely to involve Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and potentially Europe.

But the war is a valuable opportunity to study US strengths and weaknesses, particularly given that the PLA has not “tasted blood” since its 1979 war with Vietnam.

South China Morning Post