China-US trade relations may reach a ‘tactical truce’, slowing down economic decoupling

Companies in southern China are feeling growing confidence in the state of US-China relations and are reinvesting cautiously in the country, according to a survey by a US business lobby group.

The American Chamber of Commerce in South China (AmCham South China) – a mix of foreign and domestic firms – generally expects bilateral ties to stabilise in the year ahead, but is also adapting to geopolitical friction as China shifts from assembling Western goods to supplying industrial parts to emerging markets, the report found.

A survey of more than 400 companies – conducted in late 2025 – found that 39 per cent of respondents expressed a positive outlook on the future of US-China relations, up 14 percentage points from 2024, the chamber said in the study released on Tuesday.

“Because of the continuing conversations between China and America, the future of US-China trade through 2026 will be characterised by a ‘tactical truce’ – slowing but not stopping economic decoupling – with bilateral trade increasingly focused on non-sensitive sectors,” said Harley Seyedin, chairman and president of AmCham South China, at a press conference the same day.

The finding came ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected trip to China at the end of March, which will be the first such visit by an American leader in nine years if it goes ahead.

Of the 426 respondents to the AmCham South China survey, 32 per cent were from the United States, 28 per cent from mainland China, 12 per cent from Europe, 18 per cent from Hong Kong or Macau, with the remainder coming from several other regions.

The findings suggest that most firms expect US-China trade tensions to intensify in 2026, but they also believe the impact on their operations will not be as long-lasting as they had feared.

South China Morning Post