Iran conflict will accelerate China’s push to become an ‘energy powerhouse’, analysts say

The escalating conflict in the Middle East – which is sending oil prices soaring and disrupting shipping traffic along the Strait of Hormuz – should not pose an immediate threat to China’s crude supply, but will add urgency to the country’s energy security drive, analysts said.

Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran over the weekend, commercial traffic has largely come to a standstill along the Strait of Hormuz – a waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean that serves as a vital conduit for global crude flows.

Given that roughly 65 per cent of China’s seaborne crude imports come from the Middle East, a prolonged disruption to shipping along the strait would ultimately affect China’s crude sourcing, according to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

“Elevated onshore crude inventories and substantial volumes already in transit to China mean there is no immediate threat to crude supply or energy security – unless the conflict leads to widespread and prolonged disruptions to energy flows,” Xu said.

Even though China is highly exposed to supply disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz, it is better positioned than any other Asian refiner to manage a potential curtailment in refining feedstocks thanks to its sufficient crude stockpiles, according to June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities.

China had been importing around 1.4 million barrels per day of oil from Iran, with most of the shipments feeding the country’s independent refineries, Goh said. If the US took control of Iranian oil flows, that trade could be at risk, she added.

South China Morning Post