China may surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy in a decade, and it could attempt to take Taiwan by force even though the US is likely to remain the strongest military power, a Washington-based think tank found in a survey with hundreds of geopolitical forecasters.
58 per cent of surveyed experts believed that China will be the world’s top economic power by 2036, while 33 per cent expected the US to maintain its economic dominance, according to a report published on Tuesday by the Atlantic Council.
Experts are split on whether the US or China will lead in technological innovation and diplomatic influence, indicating that they could be “peer competitors” in these areas, according to the report.
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The US held a narrow lead in both domains with 47 per cent believing it will be the largest technological power in 2036, with China trailing at 44 per cent. 38 per cent and 33 per cent of experts respectively expected the US and China to have a lead in diplomatic influence.
“I think we underestimate China’s strengths and ambitions at our peril,” Melanie Hart, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said at an event in Washington on Tuesday. “I would say that across the board we are still ahead, but we have almost zero margin for error.”
Did Jimmy Lai get a fair trial? Hong Kong legal experts rebut criticism from the West
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Surveyed analysts, however, overwhelmingly expected the US to remain as the dominant military power, with nearly 73 per cent of them perceiving so and only 24 per cent expecting the same for China.
