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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Sanae Takaichi has made history again. Less than four months after becoming Japan’s first female prime minister, she has secured for her Liberal Democratic Party the largest ever majority in the country’s lower house of parliament. Sunday’s stunning general election landslide gives Takaichi a personal mandate even more powerful than any won by her mentor, the late prime minister Shinzo Abe. The LDP’s record 316 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives will give it tight control of parliamentary business, the ability to over-rule the less powerful upper house on legislation and an opportunity to launch a push to change Japan’s US-authored constitution.
Now comes the hard part. Voters who delivered Takaichi this triumph will expect her to make real headway in addressing its pressing fiscal, economic, demographic and geopolitical tasks.
Constitutional change is an issue dear to her, as it was to Abe, but she should be careful not to focus on it at the expense of more urgent matters. There is nothing intrinsically unreasonable about wanting to amend a constitution drawn up by Japan’s conquerors in the 1940s, and doing so would demonstrate the nation’s ability to evolve. But the LDP’s desire to tinker with the “peace clause” to formally recognise Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, and to give the prime minister potentially sweeping powers in times of emergency, is potentially deeply divisive.
Any change to the constitution would also require two-thirds support in parliament’s upper house, where the LDP currently lacks even a majority, and the backing of a majority of voters — high hurdles that suggest Takaichi would be wise not to rush.
There are other areas where she can move faster, including her welcome plans to increase defence spending and a possible easing of controls on the sale of weapons to allies and partners. Such moves should help reduce Tokyo’s dependence for security on an unreliable US. Ongoing diplomatic friction with China clearly did little political damage to Takaichi, who is right to assert Japan’s interest in regional stability. But she should try to avoid any unnecessary provocation towards Beijing, and refrain from visiting the controversial Yasukuni shrine to Japan’s war dead.
The prime minister’s plans to direct government spending more towards promising growth sectors require more detail. Her pledge of increased support for caregivers is welcome, though she could do more to promote women’s economic role — not least given her personal demonstration of how a talented female can shake up a stuffy male-dominated sector. She is right to seek to make government spending more predictable with multiyear budget measures. But she will need to make sure she retains the confidence of bond investors already nervous about fiscal sustainability. She might sensibly rethink plans for a two-year consumption tax exemption for food sales.
Takaichi should also tread carefully on plans to tighten laws on foreigners in Japan, a reflection of public anxiety about the impact of record immigration and inward tourism. Measures such as greater support for foreign residents to learn Japanese, faster processing of refugee claims and controls on land acquisition are reasonable. But she should not let her tone become hostile, given Japan’s real need for immigrants to soften the impact of population ageing and decline.
In her first months in office, Takaichi has shown a generally sure political touch. The stunning pay-off of her gamble on a snap election shows the national thirst for fresh and decisive leadership. Despite her majority, though, she will still have to work hard to keep the country with her. This is certainly no time for hubris.