The US faces critical “sustainment risks” that might lead to rapid defeat in a conflict with China, according to a Heritage Foundation report, which also found that while such a scenario could start in the Taiwan Strait, it would not be contained there.
Based on the findings of an AI-based study called Tidalwave – after a 1943 operation of the same name – the right-wing think tank urged Washington to immediately strengthen American fuel and munitions reserves and logistical networks.
At the same time, China’s fuel and ammunition systems were “vulnerable to a range of US tools before and during conflict and more visible or exposed than the forces they support”, the study said.
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“Allowing the systems that support the PLA to operate with impunity before and during conflict would carry grave strategic consequences,” the report added, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.
AI-assisted simulations based on more than 7,000 data sources focused on fuel and ammunition vulnerabilities for both sides in scenarios based on a 365-day US-China conflict in the western Pacific Ocean.
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The study found that both the Americans and Chinese faced critical risks in sustaining supplies of fuel and munitions, making the first 30-60 days crucial in determining the long-term shape of the war by quickly reducing numbers of aircraft and ships.
