China to set GDP growth range, providing policy flexibility in 2026: sources

China’s government is likely to set this year’s economic growth target in a range between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent, according to three sources briefed on the matter.

Such a target would indicate a tolerance for a modest deceleration from last year’s 5 per cent gross domestic product growth as Beijing highlights the importance of “high-quality” development and urges local officials to embrace “the right concept of political performance”, the sources said.

The range, if confirmed, would serve as another indication of a tilt towards economic rebalancing and stability, both highly valued in the first year of a new five-year plan and even more so in advance of the ruling Communist Party’s next national congress, expected to take place in late 2027.

In broad terms, “the right concept of political performance” rejects the idea that economic growth should be the prime criterion used when assessing the performance of local government officials.

This year’s GDP growth target is expected to be unveiled at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in early March. It also provides guidance for local governments drafting their own economic plans, and is often revealed to related officials in briefings before its official release.

China has set and met an annual GDP growth of “about 5 per cent” for three consecutive years. The growth rate was 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 5 per cent in each of the past two years.

South China Morning Post