Australians fear repeat of ‘Black Summer’ as fires rage

David Jeffries fled his home near Melbourne fearing for his life as some of the worst blazes in years laid waste to rural towns once seen as safe from Australia’s devastating annual fire season.

It was gone midnight by the time he returned, his home in the picturesque town of Harcourt all but destroyed. “It was very surreal,” he said. “The house was still alight. I half expected a ghost to jump out. I thought if I closed my eyes and opened them again then maybe it was a dream.”

The scene at Harcourt, a historic town known for its apples and cider that had been considered to be at lower risk than other areas with denser forestation and a history of bushfires, made clear that for many Australians the battle with fire is now one to be managed, not won. “In retrospect, I don’t think anywhere is safe and secure,” said Jeffries.

Fire officials have warned that temperatures could rise significantly in the coming weeks, with Victoria and New South Wales, the country’s two largest state economies, among the hardest hit by blazes.

Some fear that 2026 could prove to be one of the worst seasons since the “Black Summer” blazes of 2019 that killed 33 people and cost farmers A$5bn ($3.4bn) in lost crops and damage to property and equipment and A$2.4bn of insured losses, according to Moody’s.

The devastation in Harcourt makes clear how hard it has become to prepare for fire season.

“A lot of the public have a sense of how fires move across the landscape in an almost orderly way. But that is changing with erratic winds and massive ember attacks running ahead of the fire. It’s more chaotic. It’s hard to predict and respond,” said Jason Sharples, director of the bushfire research unit at the University of New South Wales.

<div data-o-component="o-expander" class="o-expander o-expander__info-box" data-o-expander-shrink-to="hidden" data-trackable="clip-info-box" data-o-expander-collapsed-toggle-text="Show video info” data-o-expander-expanded-toggle-text=”Hide video info“>

Scientists have warned that climate change is making extreme weather events more intense across the world. That has been evident in Australia where temperatures have soared in recent years with 2025 the fourth-warmest year on record.

Australia has poured more investment into dealing with extreme weather conditions, which has included simultaneous droughts and floods as well as the devastating threat from fires. Floods have also hit parts of the country, including Victoria.

Abnormal weather conditions have made it harder to prepare for the onset of fires as the window for controlled burning — when firefighters set low-intensity fires to reduce the amount of ground fuel in high-risk areas — has narrowed.

This month, the rural fire service in Victoria said that it fought 200 fires with 12 becoming major ones that destroyed more than 220 homes as a combination of extreme heat and dry conditions triggered grass fires that are difficult to combat. 

Australians have become accustomed to bushfire season but the threat has intensified, said Iuliia Shustikova, who leads Moody’s bushfire products.

“What makes 2026 stand out is not that fires are burning but how multiple large fires, aligned with extreme conditions, have crossed into areas with property exposure,” Shustikova said. “The result: homes and businesses are directly in the path of fire fronts, amplifying losses and humanitarian impacts.”

Already, there has been one casualty — cattle farmer Maxwell Hobson who tried to defend his property. About 400,000 hectares of agricultural land have been scorched. Local hunting shops have donated tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition to farmers who returned to their properties to euthanise animals injured by the blazes.

<div data-o-component="o-expander" class="o-expander o-expander__info-box" data-o-expander-shrink-to="hidden" data-trackable="clip-info-box" data-o-expander-collapsed-toggle-text="Show video info” data-o-expander-expanded-toggle-text=”Hide video info“>