How narrowing China-US gap could reshape global power play by 2035

The United States is likely to lose its clear edge over China in strategic relations with major nations by 2035, a prominent Chinese political scientist has predicted.

Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Relations, said strategic competition between Beijing and Washington was likely to remain intense in the coming decade and could escalate into a crisis during US President Donald Trump’s second term, but the risk of direct war could decline under subsequent administrations.

In his book Inflection of History: International Configuration and Order 2025-2035, published last month, Yan argues that China and the US are the only two superpowers and will continue to outpace other major countries during the second Trump administration and beyond.

“By 2035, issue-based side-picking between China and the US is likely to become a normalised international phenomenon,” the book states.

By that time, China’s strategic relationships with Brazil and Russia will be stronger than those countries’ ties with the US, while Germany and France will pursue a path of relative neutrality, hedging between the two powers, according to Yan.

He predicted that although India, Japan and Britain would maintain stronger strategic ties with the US than with China, they were expected to be less proactive about taking part in Washington’s containment of Beijing.

South China Morning Post