Why China is Myanmar’s only real hope

Myanmar’s military junta is staging the country’s first general election since its coup in 2021. Western critics have dismissed it as a “sham”, while the generals have insisted that the polls are “free and fair”.

Posting on X, Tom Andrews, the United Nations rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, called the election “a theatre of the absurd”. He may be right but it is also beside the point.

Andrews was a long-time foreign supporter of Aung San Suu Kyi, whose second-term government was overthrown by the military shortly after a landslide victory by her party in the 2020 election. He was also a US congressman.

Myanmar’s overwhelming need is to end the civil war, or at least contain it. Let’s just say if the election were “free and fair” by UN standards, there wouldn’t be a civil war raging in the first place.

There will be two more rounds of polling in January before reaching the final results. But Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who has been the country’s ruler since the coup, and his main civilian party are likely to emerge as the winners.

The junta can then claim a veneer of electoral legitimacy, something Western critics and governments have warned against, but which neighbouring countries such as China, India and Thailand will accept. At least some civil restrictions and political repression may be eased.

South China Morning Post