Putting aside the ongoing war of words between Beijing and Tokyo surrounding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan last month, there is a simple question that needs answering. Can Japan’s Self-Defence Forces really afford to fight the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) without American military support?
Takaichi’s answer appears to be that Japan’s military must do so. The legislation approved by Japan’s Diet in September 2015 allowed the country to exercise its right of collective self-defence – albeit only to a limited degree – even if Japan is not directly attacked. There are three conditions on acting on this right: if an attack against a foreign country with which Japan has close relations threatens Japan’s survival; if there is no other appropriate means to repel the attack and ensure Japan’s survival and protect its people; and that the use of force must be limited to the minimum extent necessary.
Taiwan is not a foreign country, of course. Even if a conflict did break out across the Taiwan Strait and a few stray bombs accidentally fell into the waters off Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, how could that be interpreted as a threat to Japan’s survival? The same year that Japan passed its self-defence legislation, a few artillery shells from Myanmar government forces landed in a village in Yunnan province, injuring five villagers. The issue was resolved quietly because the Chinese government saw it as an accident.
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The only territorial dispute between Beijing and Tokyo is over the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkakus. Although both have coastguard ships sailing in the waters off the islands, the two militaries have maintained a kind of tacit agreement of not sending their naval vessels into the disputed waters.
If the prospect of China and Japan coming to blows over disputed territory is so unlikely, it would be ridiculous for them to start fighting over Taiwan. Even if they did, there is no way Japan could win in any scenario. Plus, if Beijing saw Tokyo’s military involvement over Taiwan as a given, why wouldn’t the PLA launch a pre-emptive strike on Japanese forces? Takaichi is inviting the very conflict she says she wants to prevent by raising the possibility of Japanese intervention.
There are three layers of strategic ambiguity around the Taiwan issue, stemming from China, the United States and Washington’s Asian allies. Beijing sees peaceful reunification as the best outcome and believes time is on its side. This can be seen in Beijing still mentioning peace across the strait despite the Democratic Progressive Party holding the Taiwan presidency for two consecutive administrations.
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