Major foreign banks raise China’s GDP forecast, annual target seen as ‘on track’

Several major banks forecast stronger economic growth for China this year, buoyed by third-quarter data showing slightly better-than-expected expansion despite domestic and external headwinds.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its full-year gross domestic product forecast for 2025 from 4.8 per cent to 4.9 per cent, noting that the government’s target of “around 5 per cent” remains “largely on track”.

The bank also revised its estimate for 2026, up slightly from 4.2 per cent to 4.3 per cent, in a report on Monday.

The new forecasts follow China’s announcement on Monday that its economy grew 4.8 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2025. That narrowly beat a 4.76 per cent estimate by Chinese financial data provider Wind and brought growth to 5.2 per cent for the first three quarters of the year.

The revisions also came as the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee deliberates an outline for the next five-year plan at its fourth plenum, which opened on Monday and concludes on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, published a commentary by Wang Yiming, vice-chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, who stressed the institutional strengths of the country’s five-year plans.

“The ability to ‘draw a blueprint and follow it through’ and to maintain a nationally coordinated approach has driven economic and social development… creating a rare miracle of rapid growth and long-term stability,” he said.

South China Morning Post