China’s property market poised to decline at least through 2026: S&P analyst

China’s vast property market is expected to continue to decline at least through the next year, according to S&P Global Ratings.

“We estimate nationwide primary property sales will fall 8 per cent in 2025 and between 6 to 7 per cent in 2026, as overall demand remains soft,” said Edward Chan, director at S&P Global Ratings, at a webinar on Thursday.

This will continue to put pressure on Chinese developers, many of which are going through the challenge of delivering homes, while maintaining their operations to meet their debt obligations, the firm said.

Distressed Chinese company Cifi Holdings, for example, said it will restructure US$8.1 billion of its offshore debt, following other mainland developers’ efforts to update their financial reconstruction plans.

According to a stock exchange filing on Thursday, Cifi will cancel its existing debts, release current debtors from their obligations, issue about US$6.73 billion in new bonds and pay roughly US$9.5 million in cash to creditors – a plan that is expected to strengthen its capital structure and reduce its offshore obligations by around US$1.4 billion.

Shanghai-based Cifi said it expected to obtain shareholder and regulatory approvals by the end of this month.

South China Morning Post