Global trade has withstood the test of the Trump administration’s tariff hikes and is expected to continue to hold up in the next few years, albeit at a slower growth pace, according to new research.
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Global trade volume would grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 per cent between this year and 2029, according to a special update of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker published on Tuesday. The figure roughly matches the pace in the previous 10 years, but is slower than the 3.1 per cent rate forecast in January.
Amid front-loading of shipments in advance of the US tariff increases, international trade in the year’s first half grew at the fastest rate in any half-year period since 2010, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic rebound. However, growth was expected to slow from 3.2 per cent this year to 1.6 per cent next year, before returning to 2.5 or 2.6 per cent through 2029, DHL said.
“Despite all the headwinds, the [tracker] highlights the enduring strength of global trade,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, the courier division of the Bonn, Germany-based logistics giant. “We must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other.”
The report, produced with New York University’s Stern School of Business, was based on more than 20 million data points from over 25 sources.
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“The data indicates that a reversal of globalisation is a risk but not a current reality,” the researchers said.
The report was prepared before US President Donald Trump’s threat on Friday of an additional 100 per cent tariff on all Chinese imports from November 1, in retaliation for Beijing’s expanded export curbs on rare earth materials and technologies a day earlier.
