Asean+3 growth defies expectations but trade war risks still ‘high’, AMRO says

The “Asean plus three” group of countries achieved solid economic growth in the first half of 2025, but unpredictable policy shifts in the United States could still send tremors through the region this year, a top economic surveillance body said.

Growth in the grouping – the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, along with China, Japan and South Korea – is projected to reach 4.1 per cent in 2025, the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said in a new quarterly update.

While the latest figure is an upward revision from the 3.8 per cent AMRO projected for the year in July, it still marks a slight decrease from the 4.3 per cent recorded in 2024.

“So far, the major economies have been doing reasonably well despite the headwinds associated with trade policies,” said Dong He, AMRO chief economist, at a press conference on Thursday. “But going forward, we still want to emphasise and caution against any complacency because trade policy uncertainties are still high.”

While front-loaded shipments have boosted external demand, Dong cautioned that exports could decline if tariffs lead to higher prices. Uncertainties also persist about how the global economy would be affected, he added.

The US has imposed tariffs ranging from 15 to 40 per cent on Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Japan and South Korea.

South China Morning Post