China’s trade probes into Mexico seen as ‘clear warning’ not to bow to US pressure

As China and the United States approach the next phase of trade talks, Beijing has launched anti-dumping and trade barrier probes into Mexico after the Latin American country proposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

Analysts said the move signalled a warning from Beijing, as Mexico’s planned duties – affecting a range of countries, but sparing the US and Canada – are widely seen as an attempt to curry favour with Washington.

On Thursday, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation into pecans from Mexico and the US, expected to last one year.

On the same day, the ministry also launched a separate probe into whether Mexico has erected trade barriers against Chinese products. If confirmed, Beijing could pursue bilateral talks or escalate the case to a multilateral dispute resolution body, such as the World Trade Organization.

“I see this as a bit of a ‘muscle flex’ on the part of China. It is demonstrating that it feels in a strong enough position so that it doesn’t need to tiptoe around or avoid provocative actions,” said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and a former US trade negotiator.

In early September, Mexico announced plans to increase tariffs by up to 50 per cent on about 1,400 product categories, including vehicles, auto parts, steel, toys and furniture. The duties will apply to countries without trade agreements with Mexico, including China, and coincide with preparations for the 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement.

South China Morning Post