Can China’s next 5-year plan restore consumption confidence?

As China drafts its 15th five-year plan – the next entry in a line of expansive blueprints that have set the tone for the country’s development over more than seven decades – we examine how these documents inform and reflect high-level policy priorities, what to expect in the coming iteration and whether it will expand on existing initiatives to boost domestic consumption.

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Five years ago, Joe Zhang was a high-flying analyst at a Beijing-based foreign company. And he was content splashing out his bonuses on a US$3,000 Balenciaga jacket, while eyeing a designer watch priced like a car.

How times have changed. After being laid off, he took a job at a state-owned logistics firm, and his salary was halved. Luxury apparel and flashy timepieces are no longer on Zhang’s radar – he is looking to save money. The 36-year-old now settles for US$30 knock-off items, and vacation getaways are out of the question.

The sharp swing in Zhang’s consumption habits is one shared by countless Chinese people at a time of employment uncertainty, stagnant wage growth, investment downturns and deflationary risks. And for many, how the economy fares in the coming years will determine how much more they dare to spend.

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“I’m basically eating in my old savings now,” Zhang said. “I have almost no new savings coming in every month, and I have to work really hard just to put a little aside.”

Thus, considerable hope is being placed on China’s upcoming five-year economic road map (2026-2030), which will be deliberated by policymakers in October and could serve as a blueprint to revive gross domestic product growth, shore up the job market, boost household income and restore people’s confidence to invest and spend.

South China Morning Post

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