China could build an artificial island at the fiercely contested Scarborough Shoal to shore up control of the surrounding waters if its newly established nature reserve fails to stem challenges by the Philippines, a prominent Chinese scholar on the dispute has said.
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But a final decision would boil down to control, cost and confrontation, according to Wu Shicun of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, a government-sponsored think tank.
A major consideration would be “whether it serves to strengthen China’s assertion of sovereignty and effective administrative control”, Shanghai-based news site Guancha quoted Wu as saying in an interview published on Sunday.
“Should China determine that merely declaring territorial sea baselines and establishing a national nature reserve at Huangyan Island are inadequate to protect its sovereignty and exercise jurisdiction, then the logical consequence would be the construction of defensive facilities requiring a permanent land base,” he added, referring to the shoal’s Chinese name. The Philippines calls it Panatag Shoal.
“This, in turn, would necessitate land reclamation.”
By declaring a nature reserve on the shoal, Beijing was also seeking to limit the appearance of Philippine vessels in the disputed waters and reduce the substantial cost and burden of maintaining a constant, long-range law enforcement presence in the area, Wu said.
