Beijing expands its influence in Eurasia as Trump triggers geopolitical shifts

While United States President Donald Trump aims to end – or at least freeze – the Ukraine conflict and portray himself as a peacemaker, China seems to be quietly expanding its influence in Eurasia – a region that Halford Mackinder, “the father of geopolitics”, viewed as the key to global power.

The coming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, scheduled to start on August 31 in Tianjin, is expected to provide another opportunity for Beijing to strengthen its political, economic and military ties with the Global South – including nations that have maintained strong relations with Washington.

Trump’s tariff policies have not only led to a deterioration in economic ties between the US and China, but have also pushed India – Beijing’s regional rival – to improve relations with its fellow Asian power.

Last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. But this year, after Trump’s extra tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil, Modi confirmed his participation in the event. From Beijing’s perspective, this clearly represents a diplomatic victory.

India has long been a defence partner of the US. It’s also played an important role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the US-dominated organisation that Chinese officials have reportedly labelled as a “military alliance aimed against China’s resurgence.” To this day, the US remains India’s largest trade partner. However, Trump’s recent moves could push India to deepen ties with alternative partners like China and Russia.

The fact that the trade between India and China in 2023 reached US$136 billion, and that Russia became a major exporter of both natural gas and crude oil to China, indicates that there is room for a broader strategic realignment across Eurasia – one that may gradually reduce American influence in the region.