Da Wei is director of Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy in Beijing. His research focuses on China-US relations and US security and foreign policy. In this interview, he discusses the prospects for a trade deal between Beijing and Washington and examines China’s role on the global stage in light of America’s current foreign policy.
This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here. China and the United States have held several rounds of high-level trade talks recently, and they have just extended the tariff truce by 90 days. How do you assess the ongoing China-US negotiations and trade tensions? How do you think the trade talks will end?
I am cautiously optimistic about the potential for the two countries to reach an agreement over tariffs. But of course it depends on what the criteria are and how we define success. If we say there will be a deal, then it’s a success. I guess we would have a good chance to have a deal. I don’t know when but ideally later this autumn. Obviously, I think both sides want to have a deal.
From the American perspective, China is the most important country [when it comes to its] international trade relations. Without such a deal,
Trump’s policy agenda of redefining or maybe adjusting the US external trade relations with the rest of the world will not be completed. China also wants a deal because it can inject a strong sense of predictability to its external economic environment. That’s good for the economy. Politically, a trade deal will pave the way for the China-US presidential summit sometime later this fall, which is also key to the general stability of bilateral relations. So, both China and the US need a deal.
Having said that, we also need to be realistic about the future level of tariffs. This is the reason why I said it depends on what your definition of success is. If you want to reach a deal with a very low tariff level or a similar tariff level that the US has with, say,
Europe,
Japan,
South Korea or
Britain, I think that’s very unlikely and basically impossible.
South China Morning Post
