China should keep GDP growth between 4.5% and 5% for next 5-year plan: scholar

China will need to achieve annual gross domestic product growth of at least 4.5 per cent over the next five years to reach a 2035 benchmark, with a figure of “around 5 per cent” ideal for hitting the politically important target, a top Communist Party publication has suggested.

The country’s average annual growth rate “has to exceed 4.5 per cent” to ensure China has the per capita GDP of “moderately developed countries” by that year – a goal set during the party’s 20th National Congress in 2022 – wrote Cui Youping, a professor at the Institute of Party History and Literature, in an article for the Study Times on Wednesday.

The article, outlining eight priorities for the 15th five-year plan – a blueprint for the next half-decade of national development – was published on the front page of the journal owned by the Central Party School, China’s premier ideological training centre.

Other priorities included in the piece were technological advancement and the improvement of people’s livelihoods.

“If a growth rate of around 5 per cent is maintained during the 15th five-year plan period, it will lay a solid foundation for achieving the 2035 goal,” added Cui, whose institute is directly under the party’s powerful Central Committee.

Citing World Bank data, he noted that the per capita GDP of moderately developed countries is around US$30,000. China’s was US$13,400 in 2024.

South China Morning Post