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Japan’s ruling bloc is girding itself for a backlash as voters cast their ballots in an election that opposition parties have made a referendum on inflation, immigration and the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Sunday’s election for just over half the seats in the country’s upper house of parliament threatens to dent — or even wipe out — the majority currently held by the ruling Liberal Democratic party and its coalition partner, Komeito.
If the loss of seats is heavy, say ruling bloc politicians, Ishiba will come under pressure to resign, setting up a leadership race within the LDP, which still maintains fragile control over the more powerful lower house. Advances for smaller parties would add to the turmoil, forcing the LDP bloc to seek wider partnerships to continue governing.
“A shock would be good for the LDP. Japanese people have always wanted things to be stable, and the LDP have taken advantage of that for too long,” said Kenichi Moribe, a voter in his 70s heading to a polling station in Tokyo’s Setagaya ward.
The level of public interest in the upper house election is unusually high and campaigning — particularly by a number of small, radical and in some cases overtly xenophobic parties — has been unusually intense.
A record 21.5mn voters cast their ballots in early voting and polls last week suggested that overall turnout would be well above 55 per cent. Populist campaigning has included pledges of significant tax cuts.
Junko Matsuo, a 67-year-old part-time midwife, said it was 20 years since she last voted. She was galvanised by seeing how difficult life was after her daughter became a single mother and moved in with her last year.
Matsuo said she would vote for the far-right Sanseito party, which has weaponised the rising cost of living and the influx of foreign workers against the incumbent LDP.
“The future isn’t looking good and I want to see what change is like. When I look back on this year, I think that politics needs to take more interest in the future of 40-year-olds and four-year-olds and must transform.”
Some polls predict the Sanseito party, which was widely considered a fringe movement in previous national elections, will be a big winner in Sunday’s election, which allots victories both in single seat races and by proportional representation.
Minami Asano, 77, a judicial scrivener in Niigata city and a longtime LDP supporter, switched his support to Sanseito arguing that neither the LDP nor the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic party were worth voting for.
“I want future politicians to protect the foundations of Japanese culture, land and the nation. I want politics that will protect the country, not just prices, but will properly preserve Japan. Protecting Japan’s assets, such as territory, airspace, people and land. Sanseito’s policies are close to that,” said Asano.
Several people approached by the Financial Times at polling stations in Tokyo said the rising cost of food was a factor in their voting, but that it was up to the electorate to be serious about picking a party that could work in credible partnership with the LDP. Sanseito, said Hidetoshi Tase, a 55-year-old lawyer, was just a fad.
One 65-year-old part-time sales representative at an IT company, who was voting in Yokohama, said he was supporting the LDP for the first time, on the basis that the tax cuts being suggested by opposition parties were unrealistically large.
“In the future, politics should not be about populism and saying only good things. What is important for Japan right now is that we need to get our finances in order, as we are so deeply in debt,” he said.
