China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country’s, by about 100 new warheads a year, a research group says.
China could also potentially have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the United States by the turn of the decade.
Those findings are in the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) annual assessment of armaments, disarmament and international security, released Monday.
SIPRI concludes that nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states – the U.S., Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continued intensive nuclear modernization programs in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions.
It highlights the rapid growth of China’s arsenal, now estimated to have at least 600 nuclear warheads. It says it has grown by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023.
By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east, SIPRI says.
“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade,” the report says.
In December, the U.S. Department of Defense offered a similar estimate of China’s warhead count, tripling its estimated arsenal in just four years.
However SIPRI adds that even if China reaches the maximum projected number of 1,500 warheads by 2035, that will still amount to only about one third of each of the current Russian and U.S. nuclear stockpiles.
Russia and the U.S. together possess around 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. Both have about 1,700 deployed warheads and more than that each in storage.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun was asked about the SIPRI report, and said China follows a nuclear strategy that focuses of self-defense.
“China always keeps its nuclear capabilities at minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race,” Guo told a Beijing news briefing, adding that China has a ‘no first use’ policy on nuclear weapons.
SIPRI estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more warheads and is accelerating the production of further fissile material.
It says North Korea “continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy,” also noting that leader Kim Jong Jun in November called for its “limitless” expansion.
Edited by Mat Pennington.
