Trump and Xi to act tough but won’t allow free fall in US-China ties: Ryan Hass

Ryan Hass is director of the John L. Thornton China Centre and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at the Brookings Institution. He is also a senior fellow at the think tank’s Centre for Asia Policy Studies. He is a former diplomat with a focus on China and served as a key member of the National Security Council during the administration of former US president Barack Obama.

He served as a foreign service officer in the US embassies in Beijing, Seoul and Ulaanbaatar, and in the State Department offices of Taiwan coordination and Korean affairs.

This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.

What is the likely scenario for after the current trade truce, and what will be the outlook for China–US relations during Trump’s second term?

I would venture to guess that not even [US President Donald] Trump can confidently predict how the 90-day truce will end. I think there are a couple of reasons for this. First, President Trump is not following any type of intricate master strategy with detailed steps leading to an ultimate conclusion.

He’s experimenting and adapting to changing circumstances until he arrives at an outcome that he believes he can characterise as a win.

Second, the trade war will be influenced by a lot of factors completely apart from and outside of the US-China relationship. For example, will the United States economy be in recession later this year? Will China’s economy be experiencing significant downward pressure?

South China Morning Post