The International Organisation for Mediation launched in Hong Kong late last month, counting 32 countries as founding signatories. An institution designed to supplement and actualise Article 33 of the United Nations Charter is something the world increasingly needs as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags into its fourth year.
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Recent peace talks in Istanbul produced no appreciable progress, while swings on the battlefield have long since given way to a grinding impasse. Neither side appears capable of achieving peace, much less victory on the battlefield. Meanwhile, sanctions, weapons deliveries and rhetorical escalation continue to deepen global fragmentation.
However, peace could still be in reach if the thorniest issues are addressed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed openness to direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia has reiterated Moscow’s willingness to support a UN-centred peace initiative for Ukraine, suggesting there is at least an opening.
Both parties remain deeply divided. US-led efforts to push the two into accepting a ceasefire have so far failed, and it is little wonder why, given the challenges remaining.
Nato does not hold the answer, and neither does the presence of US troops. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear that deploying US forces to Ukraine in a peacekeeping role is unacceptable. “Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” he told a gathering of transatlantic alliance members in Brussels.
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Russia is unwilling to accept a peace deal that it believes would have Nato divisions stationed on its border. Similarly, Ukraine cannot accept a peace on Russia’s terms that would see it disarmed and geopolitically isolated. A mixture of European and non-European peacekeepers will soon be vital in addressing the anxieties that have prolonged the conflict.
